Distributorcap NY has taken a look at the rise in oil prices, both to date and into the future. The picture is not pretty.
For those unaware of how we got to this place, this goes back to 1973. That was the year that Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom Kippur (the holiest day in the Jewish calendar) in an attempt to win back the territories lost in the Six Day War. Despite initial successes on the battlefield, at the end of the war, the Israelis held even more territory, though at an enormous cost to both sides. In reaction or sympathy to the Arab side, the Middle East oil producers largely suspended exports.
The results were dramatic, to say the least. Gas prices in the US doubled. There were shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel; long lines at the gas stations were very common. Many gas stations rationed fuel sales to avoid running out of gas to sell. Some areas imposed "odd/even" sales days.
This was when the politicians first started decrying American reliance on imported oil.
The second gas crisis came six years later. During the Iranian Revolution, Iran's export operation went offline. Again, gas prices doubled overnight, there were gas shortages and lines at the pump.
There was some response from the consumers. Fuel-efficient vehicles became popular and people started paying attention to how much energy they used overall. The increased use of fuel-efficient vehicles slowed the overall increase in the use of oil. The price of crude cratered in the mid 1980s and, other than the spike during the Persian Gulf War in 1991, stayed relatively low until our current president began Operation Enrich My Buddies.
That supply disruptions could raise the price of crude oil has been known since 1973. That spikes in demand, when coupled with supply shortages, could do a real number on the price of oil has also been obvious. Since 1973, it has been clear to everyone who looked at it that this day was coming.
Well, that day is here.
One thing that is clear is that the politicians in Washington, the ones who like to style themselves as "leaders," are nothing of the sort. The only thing that they have been willing to run on the issue of energy independence is their mouths. In fact, the congressional delegation from places like Michigan have been active in doing everything they can to scuttle every initiative to reduce dependence on oil, because the Big Three automakers have been either too stupid or too unwilling to figure out how to make fuel-efficient vehicles at a profit. Those Michigan lawmakers have been aided and abetted by the oil and coal industries, who have been consistently against the idea of research into alternative energy technologies.
Let's also get past the "we can drill our way out of this" fiction. Oil is a world commodity and is sold on the world market. We cannot produce more oil here without effecting the price of oil in India and China. All producing more oil will do is delay the inevitable.
This day has been advertised as coming for 35 years. In those 35 years, the Republicans have held the Presidency for 23 years, the Democrats 12. This is a bipartisan failure, a bipartisan betrayal of the American people.
We cannot drill our way out. What we need to do, instead, is to begin to go in another direction. But because the Federal government has not used its abilities to either fund programs or give tax credits for energy research in a large way (yes, they did sort of mess around with it), we are now at the point where, instead of a series of long-term plan and well-thought out research projects, crash programs may be the order of the day.
Crash programs are expensive, wasteful and, given the slashing of contract administrations by the corruption-enablers of the Bush Administration, are prone to corruption. Crash programs also can head off in fruitless directions at enormous costs, both monetary and societal, as we are seeing with the corn-based ethanol programs.
But because of the failure of leadership by every president from Nixon to the Chimperor, and due to the obstructions by the oil, coal and automobile industries, we are at the point where we have no choice.
Thanks, guys.
Friday, May 23, 2008
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1 comment:
thanks for the link
this has been a failure on so many levels of american life
1 - government refusing to do anytihing and cowtowing to the oil lobby groups -- and giving them tax breaks
2 - industry - GM and Ford for just not making an auto that gets 70 mpg or an electric vehicle or SOMETHING that helps
and i will lay the blame mostly on us american people -- for refusing to believe this day would ever come, for NOT wanting to conserve or buy smaller vehicles and for electing douchebags like bush -- who are so in bed with the oil nations and electing him because he is fun to have a beer with
we screwed ourselves this time and we are paying the price
this makes me very angry
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