Seen on the street in Kyiv.

Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

“The Mob takes the Fifth. If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?” -- The TOFF *

"Foreign Relations Boil Down to Two Things: Talking With People or Killing Them." -- Unknown

“Speed is a poor substitute for accuracy.” -- Real, no-shit, fortune from a fortune cookie

"If you believe that you are talking to G-d, you can justify anything.” — my Dad

"Colt .45s; putting bad guys in the ground since 1873." -- Unknown

"Stay Strapped or Get Clapped." -- probably not Mr. Rogers

"The Dildo of Karma rarely comes lubed." -- Unknown

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

* "TOFF" = Treasonous Orange Fat Fuck, A/K/A Dolt-45,
A/K/A Commandante (or Cadet) Bone Spurs,
A/K/A El Caudillo de Mar-a-Lago, A/K/A the Asset., A/K/A P01135809

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Battle for Tripoli?

There are conflicting reports about what is happening in and around Tripoli.

I'm not going to write about that. Assuming that the rebels remain united, then there are only a few ways that this will end.

First is a negotiated deal, where Gaddafi, his family and his inner circle are allowed to flee to a third nation, which will, in turn, promise not to extradite them. This would be the "golden prison" option, for likely Gadafi would be confined to a compound of some sort.*

The second is a semi-frozen conflict, where the rebels are not strong enough to advance into and take the city, yet the loyalists are not able to reverse the rebels' gains. The rebels would infiltrate areas of Tripoli and stir up trouble for the loyalists, but without the ability to enter into heavy urban warfare. In essence, this would be 21st Century siege warfare. As in traditional siege warfare, the suffering would fall most on the civil population. The goal in this is to either force Gaddafi to flee or to spark an uprising among the lower ranks of the remnants of the Libyan military, who may not see a reason to die for Gaddafi.

The third is all-out urban warfare. This is probably the least likely to happen. Urban warfare is a brutal and bloody business; you don't need to be any sort of military scholar to know that. Whether the Battle of Monterrey, the Battle of Stalingrad, the Battle of Berlin or the Battle of Hue,** taking a city by force requires a large, well-trained force and the ability to take a lot of casualties. Since a necessary tool for urban warfare is the hand grenade (and other explosives), civilian casualties will be very high.

I've not made any sort of serious study of the Libyan rebels. "Well-trained" and "heavily armed" do not seem to be appropriate adjectives, though. They've gained experience the hard way, they have been getting some on-the-fly training from various special forces and I do not mean to make light of their dedication. But they don't have heavy weapons (to any great degree) and they have no air support. I don't see NATO flying armed missions in support of urban warfare, as civilian casualties would be unavoidable and NATO is rather adverse to that.

Gaddafi also has a problem with arranging to flee: When word gets out to his troops that he is bailing out, they might decide that their best option is to present his head to the rebels as a surrender gift. Otherwise, they are left to face whatever retribution will be handed out to the loyalists by the victors. Historically, being on the losing side of a civil war is a bad place to be.***

UPDATE: It would seem that Gaddafi's army is less than interested in dying for a lost cause. So this may be over sooner rather than later.
________________________
* He'd probably not want to leave anyway for fear of assassination or rendition ("rendition" is when a national government engages in kidnapping).
** To cite a few examples. There have been plenty of others, particularly between the Soviets and the Germans in the Great Patriotic War.
*** The South got off very lightly in this regard, though you wouldn't know it to hear the kvetching that continues to this day.

6 comments:

Oldfool said...

When the Marine Battle Hymn starts being played a lot it will be time to worry....To the shores of Tripoli...might be taken as a sign from gawd.

Stewart Dean said...

And then there's the civil war that will start after Quaddafi is swept from power. Anybody want to give odds that this will be yet another external attempt to create a democracy that ends up with a failed state?

Comrade Misfit said...

Stewart: No bet. Whatever comes out of Libya probably won't be a secular democracy. It'll probably be another Islamic wingnut state that we'll have to bomb from time to time.

Stewart Dean said...

Effin' magic democracy beanstalk beans. We keep going down the road and getting sold yet another set of beans and they *always* get us in trouble. There ain't no happy ending in these fairy tales. Of course, we must remember that our leadership and military believes they can swan in where 3000 years of empire attempting to do something (anything) in A-stan have failed, so magic beans are hardly a stretch.

Joe said...

This is a good set-up for a successful change to democracy. If the rebels win, they'll have won it with their own blood and toil. NATO played this exactly right -- neutralize the regime's heavy weaponry so the war becomes a fair fight. Essentially, NATO did for Libya what France did for the new-born USA.

Nobody handed anything to anybody in Libya. I think they've picked up a good chunk of national pride in the past five months. That'll be the best thing they have to work with.

BadTux said...

Gaddafi didn't have an army. What Gaddafi had was thousands of mercenaries. And Libya has been embargoed for months now, meaning that Gaddafi has been unable to export oil or tap his overseas bank accounts.

Hint: What do mercenaries do when their paycheck bounces? You don't say!

- Badtux the Snarky Penguin