Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground
Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level
and then beat you with experience.” -- Mark Twain

"Stay Strapped or Get Clapped." -- probably not Mr. Rogers

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Friday, February 11, 2011

Mubarak is Gone, the Regime Survives

Even though Hosni Mubarak has stepped down (and I predict that he will soon go into permanent exile), the Egyptian regime of control by the military has not ended. The Egyptian military has had control of the country for the last 58 years, since Nasser and his fellow army officers deposed the British-imposed monarchy in 1952. What democracy that has existed in Egypt since Anwar Sadat allowed political parties to form has been a fig leaf for military control.

Despite the euphoria of the demonstrators today, only the man at the top has changed. What happened today was a bloodless coup. The Egyptian military regime survives.

Another thought: For all of those who ask "what the American role should be in Egypt," the answer is "damned little." Sure we should offer support for an orderly transition. But as far as throwing in our two cents as to who should be the next president, much less trying to make it happen, our track record isn't so hot. Even where we have been able to put "our guy" in power, it has eventually backfired. So hands off, mostly.

1 comment:

BadTux said...

About the only thing the U.S. *can* do is quietly tell the military behind the scenes, "you fire on unarmed civilians, you're cut off, not a single dime more and a complete arms embargo." Most of their neat-o toys like M1 tanks and F-16 fighter jets require regular infusions of U.S. parts and would become static displays within months if Egypt got cut off, much like most of Iran's Western gear was gone once six months of the Iran-Iraq War had happened (thus their trade with Reagan of hostages for arms, most of the "arms" were actual spare parts for their American-made jets and tanks). And Egypt's military knows this, they were educated in U.S. military academies after all...