Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight
to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"Everything is easy if somebody else is the one doing it." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Some Horrifying Reading

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report.

This is supposedly the report that led to Trump tamping down on his "no big deal, we got this under tremendous control" rhetoric.

But people are stupid, so this will be bad no matter what.


Jones, Jon Jones said...

Give yourself an A+ for the day.

B said...

THe numbers (so far) show that this is likely to be less of an issue than H1N1 in 2009.

So far, The death rate is lower for people not old or already compromised.
The closings and "social distancing" might well make a difference.

We shall see.
Few people remember the 2009 H1N1 outbreak.

Having said that, I'm not going to any large-crowd type events for a few months.

Ten Bears said...

I wish I could chuckle like Jabba the Hutt.

Comrade Misfit said...

I find it odd, B, that the meat-space conservatives that I now all have, within the last 18 hours, started talking about the N1N1 pandemic in 2009.

Italy had less than 400 deaths in that one. China had 800.

Covid-19: Italy has had over 2,500 dead and China has had over 3,200. Might I remind you that the Covid-19 pandemic is nowhere near over.

DTWND said...

Comrade, it comes from the Rush, Sean, and Fox News talking points. And as I stated on another of your posts, those that believe the lies are members of the brainwashed cult that is Trump.


B said...

So far, a 1.7% death rate.

And it is NPR so you can't accuse me of bias like usual.

Dark Avenger said...

That death rate is much higher than that for the H1N1 flu.

And without testing, we don’t know the true death rate among all age groups.

As for bias, Lou Dobbs had a poll on Fox News asking if the response was superb, or great, or merely very good.

I think we all know which one you’d pick, B.

DTWND said...

Comparing your 1.7 percent death rate to the .02 percent reported below, this virus is nearly 9x deadlier. You've just contradicted your first posting on this thread. Wishing and hoping and repeatedly claiming something to be true doesn't make it so.



DTWND said...

My bad math again. Deadlier by a factor of 85. Anyone still think the Democrats are promoting this as a hoax to harm Trump?


B said...

By my math, and based on the HIGHEST death count of known cases, then it is (maybe, probably closer to 4) a factor of twice as high for the swine flu.

The lowest number of death percentage I could find, was 3.4% for Swine Flu.
So far the numbers appear to be about 1.5-1.8% for the Covid-19 virus. Most of those were very old folks, not so for the Swine Flu, which hit everyone harder.
At least in the US, anyway. Having said that, the statistics do not seem to come close to being your statement of 85 times more deadly...nor, to be honest are those statistics well sourced.

Dale: Your own link shows an ACTUAL death rate even lower than mine for Coronavirus 19, of 0.4% (which we know is low, as the actual numbers appear to be about 3 times that), but an ESTIMATED 3.4%....Estimated, not actual. It was ESTIMATED that over 12% of us were gonna die of the Swine Flu. That didn't happen.

We shall see as things progress.

DTWND said...

I was just using your stated number of 1.7% to come to the factor of 85. The article states the death rate for Corona of .4% IN LIMITED AREAS compared to H1N1 of .02%. It is still a factor of 20 times worse. That's a BEST case scenario.

I'm just refuting your statement of "... that this is likely to be less of an issue than H1N1 in 2009." It's really OK to be incorrect sometimes, its what makes us human.

(Incorrect 95% of the time, according to my wife)