Words of Advice:

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming from China. It's going to be just fine." -- Donald Trump, 1/22/2020

“We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here..and isn't it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama."
-- Trump Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, 2/25/20

"I don't take responsibility for anything." --Donald Trump, 3/13/20

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Monday, March 23, 2020

Shorter Trump: What's a Million Dead People As Long as the Stock Market Goes Back Up?

President Trump on Sunday night said that the government would reassess the recommended period for keeping businesses shut and millions of workers at home after this week, amid millions of job losses caused by the efforts to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”
That's Trump's priority, which comes down to protecting his own hide above everything else. He's losing a ton of cash at his properties every day they are closed. So opening them is in his self-interest.

Allowing business interests to rule over epidemiology is a recipe for a lot more dead people, as in six figures' worth. This is a national public health emergency. The people who should be driving it are those who have expertise in such matters. The states where there are not a lot of cases are the states where the virus has not taken a firm hold. Hoping that it won't is not any sort of a rational plan.

But Trump has never cared about anyone other than himself. He has all of the empathy of an I-beam.

On another note, Congress should make sure that there are firm controls on bailouts and loans for businesses. If there is a lot of discretion left to the Treasury, you can bet your last roll of toilet paper that Trump, through Mnuchin, will make sure that the money only goes to businesses that have pledged fealty to King Donald the Nutter.

20 comments:

CenterPuke88 said...

Easy answer, Feds remove the requirement, States keep it, Donnie gets to blame the Governors for the economy. That could be enough.

Jim in Monroe said...

And who would that be, since we have never had a national health emergency - "who have expertise in such matters."

“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” If that isn't empathy, I don't know what is. Would you like a list of all the flu scares over the last 30 years?

...bird flu did not kill the predicted millions in 1997. In 1999 it was Mad Cow Disease and its human variant, vCJD, which was predicted to kill half a million. Fewer than 200 in fact died from it in the UK.
The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported as having ‘a 25 per cent chance of killing tens of millions’ and being ‘worse than Aids’. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared ‘the first pandemic of the 21st Century’.
There were similar warnings in 2009, that swine flu could kill 65,000. It did not. The Council of Europe described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as ‘one of the great medical scandals of the century’.


And yet, you won't comment on the dems turning down the bailout without adding dem pork. OR Joe demntia biden, or Bernie commie sanders. Your party is a trainwreck.

I come here for the schadenfreude, but your tds is disgusting. You just have to make it all about orange man bad. Are you a cia propagandist? You forecast crap that never happens and can't put politics aside for one gd minute.

Comrade Misfit said...

Neither Biden nor Sanders are the president, Jimbo. Trump is. He's muffing this.

Your slavish devotion to Trump has been noted and logged.

Comrade Misfit out.

Ten Bears said...

Two words Jimbo: Pascal's Wager.

Or seven, do you want to take that bet?

I'll bet you're right: this isn't the plague that gets us.

That one's still thawing out of the tundra, glaciers, Antarctic.

That one hasn't seen humans since, well, since before we were human.

B said...

And yet the numbers just don't match the hysteria (again)

Here is the real data as per johns Hopkins:

WORLDWIDE:
375,450 cases
(7.5 BILLION people in the world...do the math)

16,371 TOTAL deaths blamed on this disease. (so far, "normal" seasonal flu has killed over 20,000 people this year)

For this we shut down our way of life and killed our economy?

data source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

DTWND said...

I agree with you, Jim. You don’t know what empathy is. Your portfolio has tanked. That’s so sad.

The fact that the other diseases did not reach predicted levels (possibly because those strains were already known) does not mean this one will fizzle out. Comparing the ratio of number of cases to the number of deaths indicate that the current Covid-19 rate is nearly 8-9 times greater than the H1N1 based on the current number of cases. Even if the claim that there are many more cases that we don’t know about is accurate, it still doesn’t lower the rate below the H1N1. Even if the number of cases are tripled, the statistics are stlll 2-1/2 to 3 times deadlier.

The anger felt toward your fearless leader is based upon his arrogant indifference during the beginning stages as the threat spread. His lies, cover-up, and disingenuous statements contributed to the delay in obtaining the necessary equipment for hospitals and healthcare workers. His efforts to provide support for Wall Street during this episode show where his true allegiance lies. Your continued unwavering support for Trump also provides an insight into your position.

Again, so sorry for your investment losses.

Dale

Jones, Jon Jones said...

Novel means new - never seen in humans before. The disease is still in the exponential stage worldwide.

Comparison to a linear function like the flu offends my temple:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AXyeKbw3tU

Eck! said...

There is a need to get people working and hence the economy something
approaching functioning. The real challenge is how to do that without
infecting everyone and killing more. Sounds easy like a sound bite
but call it easy is foolhardy.

Poo pooing the bugs nastiness based on others before is fools
thinking and likely to get people dead.

Its fairly clear that it is infections as a cold, most of
us get one or two a year. However for some it clearly
become a pneumonia. Its something you never want to
happen twice.

Last I checked COVID-19 is neither Republican nor Democrat
nor has it shown an inclination toward either.

Eck!

Dark Avenger said...

The pandemic has just begun, B.

The coronavirus pandemic that's spread to nearly every country in the world is picking up pace, the World Health Organization says.
"It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for second 100,000 cases, and just four days for the third 100,000 cases," WHO's top official says.

.........


Tedros said he'll be asking the G20, the international group of government and central bank leaders, to ramp up production of personal protective equipment for doctors and nurses and to avoid placing export bans on the life-saving gear. WHO had already been asking suppliers of protective gear to prioritize sending the equipment to regions most affected by the virus and discouraged stockpiling of protective gear by the general public.

"We need unity among the G20 countries who have more than 80% of the global GDP," he said. "If we don't prioritize protecting health workers, many people will die because the health worker who could have saved their lives is sick."

World health officials estimate more than 26 million health-care workers may end up treating COVID-19 patients. On Friday, WHO officials warned the outbreak could overwhelm health systems around the world in just a few weeks.

"Take one look at what's happening in some health systems around the world. Look at the intensive care units completely overwhelmed. Doctors and nurses utterly exhausted," Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's emergencies program, said Friday. "This is not normal. This isn't just a bad flu season."



https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/23/coronavirus-pandemic-is-accelerating-as-cases-eclipse-350000-who-says.html

CenterPuke88 said...

Oh, and B., 6,000 more cases in the two hours since you posted that. 45,000+ cases today, over 50,000 tomorrow...expecting about 500-1,500 deaths from that, also increasing exponentially. Do you really believe what you are blathering?

Dark Avenger said...

A certain maturity of mind is needed to understand the mathematics behind an exponential curve.

dinthebeast said...

So the flu is infectious, if you have it you can be expected to infect 1.3~1.4 other people, which means that ten transmissions down the line you're responsible for the infection of 30 people.
COVID-19 is much more infectious, so if you have it you can be expected to infect three other people. That may not sound like that much more, but ten transmissions down the line you are then responsible for the infection of 59,000 people.

So here's what we do about it for now:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241590500571910144

-Doug in Sugar Pine

Deadstick said...

DA, we asked for that problem when we corrupted "exponentially" to mean "A whole shitload".

CenterPuke88 said...

B., 18 hours later there are an another 9% more cases (409,000+), do the math.

BadTux said...

B, H1N1 is a orthomyxovirus. SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus. Not the same thing at all. About the same similarity as horses and fish. Yeah, both horses and fish eat, poop, and have blood. But you can't model the biology of a horse by dissecting a fish.

If you are modeling things, a typical flu season is not the model to look at. The cause of death differs completely between flu and COVID-19. People who die of flu generally die of a concomitant pneumonia. Those who die of COVID-19 generally die due to a cytokine storm. It's sort of like trying to predict how a horse moves around by studying a fish. It just doesn't work because the method they use to do their thing is totally different.

If you can find a similar coronavirus epidemic that caused people to die due to a cytokine storm that had similar spread and mortality rates, please let me know now.

B said...

Pretty poor analogies there, BT.

The MODELS for the disease spread and mortality ARE pretty easy to find and/or create. We have LOTS of history on disease and humans. Lots of really good recent detailed data on past outbreaks. No, not on this exact disease. But there isn't (so far) that much difference in the spread rate nor the lethality.

The 9% increase can largely be attributed to the fact the we are now testing a large number of people. Prior to a few days ago, we were only testing symptomatic people here in the US and to a large extent throughout the world.

Greater numbers of tests make for greater numbers of people who are positive, be they symptomatic or not, and will likely reduce the percentages of deaths (not the number of deaths, just the lethality percentage).

I'm guessing you don't have much experience dealing with models of this sort, nor how to look at the quality of statistical data, much less the knowledge or ability to analyze it.

CenterPuke88 said...

OK, B., you want to politely call me stupid, I’ll play that game. My statistics background is sufficient to allow me to interpret this data just fine, but if you want to play stupid games, you too can win stupid prizes.

So, let’s accept your proposal that the U.S. is reporting cases on about a five day delay. I cannot accept your suggestion that the rest of the world is doing the same because they have been busy little beavers, and testing at multiple times the rate we have, and with a turn around under two days. So, given these facts, the U.S. cases currently hitting the numbers should be placed three days ago...and given that the U.S. is now the third highest total cases of COVID-19, that has an interesting result. Correcting for the delays the U.S. has introduced to the system actually steepens the curve, not shallows it! As for death statistics, the U.S. is still so far behind in reporting and testing that people dying in non-outbreak areas may simply be classified as flu or respiratory distress failures rather than COVID-19.

The real pisser in this lovely scenario is that the severe cases and deaths generally are occurring in the day 9-12 range, a place that we are just about to enter in New York, have been in for a day or two in Washington, and will enter soon in Louisiana. On the whole, a solid 1-2% death rate would be fantastic because it would suggest we kept up with demand. I don’t expect the rate to remain that low in a place like NYC, where demand is rapidly exceeding supply, or Louisiana, where the care facilities are much thinner on the ground.

Now for a bonus note...Iran, Italy and Spain are all seeing death rates over 5%, and nearing 10%. Italy has an outstanding healthcare system that simply couldn’t cope with the numbers...and our curve is matching Italy’s, with about a three week delay. If the statistics are correct, we are about to see if a slightly earlier lockdown will shallow the curve enough, but I’m not hopeful because we likely waited too long. So, let’s see how things look around April 1st to 3rd, eh? What an outstanding April Fools joke on ourselves.

B said...

"Italy has an outstanding healthcare system that simply couldn’t cope with the numbers".

Except that the Italians die at a greater rate than the rest of europe and the US EVERY FLU SEASON.
SO there's that bit of falseness.

AS to the rest, I'd like to see how and where you are getting your statistics.

Except for Italy, spain and Iran (know, all, for their healthcare) the rest of the world doesn't match up to that 10%. Not even close.

I'm getting my numbers via the Johns Hopkins site:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

ANd, again, we are only now starting to test a large number of people. If, as you claim, you understand the numbers, then you can see why both the number of cases will go up and why the death rate will go down.

If you wish to believe that 1 person in 10 in the world will dies of this, then do whatever makes you happy.



Dark Avenger said...

The Coronavirus is from a different family of viruses than are the flu viruses. Your simple-minded comparison using past data is comparing apples to pumpkins.

B said...

Believe that if you wish.

We DO have data a on the Coronavirus family.

It pretty well models the flu. Or at least the epidemiologists think it does, anyway.

I could be as much of a jerk as you and BT are, and demand you prove your statement, but
A: I'm not that much of a jerk
B: I doubt you can.