A Bad Idea On So Many Levels

The idea of using ICBMs, specifically SLBMs, to deliver conventional warheads is such a bad idea that those who proposed it should be lined up and shot. This idea was killed by Congress two years ago, but according to William Arkin at the WaPo, it is back.

Here is why they should be shot:

The rationale for such a weapon system is that it would enable the U.S. to hit almost anywhere on the globe within a very short timespan. The problem is that say such a launch is ordered. Before the launch, every other nuclear power that is close to the flight path of such a missile has to be notified and that other nuclear power has to have enough time to get the word out to its command and control system that the launch is occurring.

For if that word does not get out, then what the other nuclear powers will see is a missile coming out of nowhere and arcing towards them. They will immediately put their nuclear forces on high alert, for what they fear is a "decapitation strike," a single shot aimed at taking out their command authority, leaving their nation leaderless and ripe for the taking. It is by no means inconceivable that, not knowing where the missile is coming from, that they may decide to get their licks in at their primary enemy.

If you were the leader of a nation and your radar system had detected an incoming ICBM (or several of them), would you wait for it to impact to see what kind of boom it made before you ordered a retaliatory strike?

So if a submarine launches a SLBM at, say, the tribal areas in Pakistan, the Pakistanis may see the missile on their early warning radars and fire a few nuclear shots at India, for Inida has SLBMs under development. Or the Indians may see a missile coming out of the Indian Ocean and think that the Pakistanis launched it from some disguised merchant ship. Either way, a nuclear war gets triggered on the Indian Subcontinent.

Another problem is that if other nations start fearing the possibility of a U.S. SLBM or ICBM attack, they will start building anti-ICBM radar stations and installing ABM systems, which presumably the Russians will be only too happy to sell to them. At a time when the world is facing the wrenching dislocations that will occurr from global climate change, triggering another arms race is a pretty stupid idea.

The worst case scenario is that the missile launch is seen as a threat by China or Russia. One good guess who they are going to suspect. If the word does not get out to them in time, the only way they will know for certain if the missile is a conventional one or a nuclear attack is to wait for it to go off; I doubt very much that if the situation were reversed, that we would wait to see what kind of "boom" the warhead will make.

This is a very bad idea, brought forth by a bunch of bureaucrats in the strategic weapons community who are desperate to remain relevant in the battle for the defense budget. In order to keep their rice bowls full, they will cheerfully sacrifice the national interest of this nation and they will happily raise the risk of a nuclear war breaking out with somebody.

The people who dreamed up this idea need to be stood up against a wall and shot.