Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Foreign Relations Boil Down to Two Things: Talking With People or Killing Them." -- Unknown

"Mobs Do Not Storm the Capitol to Do Good Deeds." -- not James Lee Burke

"Colt .45s; putting bad guys underground since 1873." -- Unknown

"Stay Strapped or Get Clapped." -- probably not Mr. Rogers

"Let’s eat all of these people!” — Venom

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Monday, January 3, 2022

Quickie Pregnancy Chromosome Blood Tests Are Usually Wrong

The tests, where they look for rare chromosomal disorders, have a stunning rate of false positives. The blood tests have been pushed by Silicon Valley tech companies, who advertise that the tests are nearly infallible, when they are anything but. Most of the companies who offer the tests refused to talk to reporters about this, which is a pretty reliable sign that they are engaged in fuckery and they are fully aware of what they are doing.

Making a decision based on those tests would be a massive mistake. Any positive needs to be confirmed by good old amniocentisis, which in itself has some risks.

If there is anyone in your circle who is pregnant or planning to be, they need to know that they may be offered tests that are pretty worthless.

2 comments:

Stewart Dean said...

Kevin Drum has an excellent piece on this...just he is often a goto for anything involving statistics
https://jabberwocking.com/the-base-rate-problem-is-not-your-friend/

dinthebeast said...

Apparently the original test for Down's Syndrome was fairly accurate, but the companies saw potential profits in the business model and came out with tests that were usually 85% wrong.

-Doug in Sugar Pine