With the political world distracted by President Trump's media wars, one of the most consequential and contentious internal debates of his presidency unfolded during a tense meeting Monday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, administration sources tell Axios.A trade war may be popular with Trump's base, but in the long run, China may benefit. In the short run, a trade war will probably trigger a recession. The impact on what goods are sold would hurt Trump territory more.
One official estimated the sentiment in the room as 22 against and 3 in favor — but since one of the three is named Donald Trump, it was case closed.
- The outcome, with a potentially profound effect on U.S. economic and foreign policy, will be decided in coming days.
- With more than 20 top officials present, including Trump and Vice President Pence, the president and a small band of America First advisers made it clear they're hell-bent on imposing tariffs — potentially in the 20% range — on steel, and likely other imports.
- The penalties could eventually extend to other imports. Among those that may be considered: aluminum, semiconductors, paper, and appliances like washing machines.
The people driving the bus on this would seem to be the Steves of Evil: Shadow President Bannon and his young fascist sidekick Miller.
(H/T)
4 comments:
Smoot-Harley v2.0
Tarriffs might get China's attention.
I'd rather see a mirroring of their practices when it comes to foreign trade.
They'd not like that one bit. It'd kill 'em. And yes, I read the article. I don't buy it. Without the US as a market, China's economy implodes.
All the supply chains are too interwoven.
Let's see...buyer raises tariffs on imported good with no or insufficient domestic options, consumer prices rise, sales fall, no/limited domestic replacements available so rationing (physical or via surcharges) occurs, economy slows, recession or depression (depends on the size of the tariff list, the possible replacements and the amounts) occurs...and that's our side.
China's side...oversupply of goods, monetary crisis, employment crisis, food crisis, civil unrest, regime change...now tell me why they would allow it to get past employment crisis when they know the way this plays out? Instead they invade someone or create a war/crisis (South China Sea) to maintain power.
Oh, and while we're at it, the WTO rules would allow retailitory tariffs on all this, and if you think for a second that our economy is immune to a hit on our exports, you're in fantasyland. As a bonus, the finding of WTO violations would end with Donnie removing us from WTO, cratering all of our trade agreements, and further allowing the imposition of more tariffs on our exports.
Just try to imagine the U.S. without its supply of semiconductors and electronic wonders or white goods. Heck, 35+% of our produce is imported, that plus an rising inability to harvest the domestic production (fruit and vegetable prices would easily quadruple) because we lack the workers. But, as B's study noted, produce is a "luxury" item.
"I don't buy it", B., 2017
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", Gergen Santayana, 1905-1905 "The Life of Reason"
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