With the Winter Olympics over, it's anybody's guess as to when the Russians move to "restore stability" in Ukraine.
The Russians were going to give Ukraine a bailout of $15 billion, but that's not going to happen, now. The Russians re not going to pay to help a government that is tilting towards the EU (and, to the Russians, Germany). The Russians may not want to be in charge of Ukraine, for they know full well that having an empire is nothing but trouble, but they want Ukraine as a buffer to Europe and NATO.
But if Ukraine is going to tilt hard towards the EU and NATO, don't be surprised if the Russians do something about it.
The ones your girlfriends warned you about.
1 hour ago
1 comment:
Sochi is a little too close to Ukraine for Russia' comfort with all the journalists around. With the latest events, some media will wander over and do some stories. The rest will bug-out quickly. My guess, three weeks and the Russian Army moves to protect ethnic Russians in the easterly portions of Ukraine.
Call it a 25% chance for a partition of the country, 25% chance for complete Russian invasion resulting in a pro-Russian governemnt being reinstalled, 40% chance for negotiations and a neutral government that gets aid from the EU (but doesn't join) and Russia, and 10% Ukraine joins the EU.
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