Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Some people in the Administration and in the Department of Defense think they have dealt a "crippling blow" to al-Qaeda in Iraq. They also point out that the level of violence is down in some parts of Iraq in recent weeks.

Before we start organizing Bush's victory parade down Pennsylvania Avenue, a few notes of caution are in order.

First off, much of the drop-off in violence is due to the fact that sectarian cleansing has been carried out in many areas of Iraq, including much of Baghdad. The fact that sectarian cleansing did occur is not a good thing, not if the goal is a free, democratic and secular Iraq, as Bush and his henchmen have long said.

Second, and that this has to be mentioned speaks volumes of the studied ignorance of the Bush Administration: In asymmetric warfare, a weak force does not confront a stronger force in areas where the stronger force is strongest. That is a point that goes back to Sun Tzu's book "The Art of War", which is over two thousand years old. One of the points that the critics of the Bush Administration made when the Surge was announced was that the opposition forces would go to ground and bide their time, for it was clear to all that the Surge cannot be sustained past next year, not unless Bush is prepared to either keep troops in Iraq longer than 15 month tours or cut their time out of Iraq to less than one year.

That violence is down in Iraq may be a sign of success. It may also be a sign that the enemy is cunning.