Putin’s going away, sooner or later, but there seems to be no possible mechanism for Russia to become anything but a basket-case ruled by a series of dictators. They have nothing to offer the world but oil and Kalashnikovs. It is a country riddled with graft and corruption, witness Putin’s reported 50% rakeoff from the oligarchs.
There is no force able to remake Russia. I fear it will stumble along, becoming a failed state with nukes, until it collapses and is dismembered by the Chinese. What’s left will be a rump nation from the Urals to its western border, run by corrupt elites who will remember when they were a great power.
Basically, France with harsh winters, lousy food and, of course, vodka.
Sunday, April 23, 2023
Midnight Dictation
Something I dictated into my phone in the middle of the night some months ago. I've posted similar stuff, but the snark in this one is worth sharing, in my non-humble opinion,
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5 comments:
Absolutely correct. Putin wants to be Peter the Great. Not going to happen.
Cue Done with Bonaparte.....but this time with the Russians doing it to themselves
Some on linkedin are examining what a failed Russian state looks like from a European point of view. The Chinese have their fears of that too. Some of it is based on the Mao Krushchev split back in the day
In that vein, both countries competed for the leadership of world communism through the vanguard parties native to the countries in their spheres of influence.[6]
In the Western world, the Sino-Soviet split transformed the bi-polar cold war into a tri-polar one. The rivalry facilitated Mao's realization of Sino-American rapprochement with the US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split
You explained it perfectly. I like russian people. They have the best music, the best literature, the best food. They are the world Chess champions. Because of this, i am willing to overlook the damage they do.
China is facing its own issues, and not well. Chinese population growth has tanked as a result of years of the one child rule, and a societal preference for male children. With 30 million more men than women, and an expectation of marriage to create a family to continue the line and support the elderly, there is an inherent friction coming in China…the so called 4-2-1 problem (one son to support two parents and four grandparents).
Under the middle U.N. projection, total Chinese population will drop to below 900 million by 2100, and could be as low as 450 million. In some ways, China is now facing the same issue Russia has, but worse because of the surplus of marriage age males with no one to marry. There is no effective way to address this, and we see the explosions of rage as young males attack nursery and primary schools with knives. Even worse for the “Chinese”, their ethnic sub-populations are still breeding above replacement numbers and evenly balanced.
Meanwhile, on the other hand, the corruption of the Soviet Union and Russia has been avoided in China by keeping it all in house. The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) owns the vast majority of industrial capacity in China, and thus makes most of the money. Unfortunately for China, and fortunately for us, the PLA Generals seem happy to spend most of the money on weapons instead of developing additional capacity. The limited “private” sector in China punches well above its weight in foreign income and contracts, but is not effectively leveraging this into truly competitive products, despite all the hype about Chinese phones and EV’s. With the growth in a de facto middle class in China, the need to provide goods to the Chinese population is seen by the Generals as an annoyance, rather than a way to turbo charge their economic development. Add to that the likely property collapse that has been unfolding 8n slow motion in China, and I’m not sure how well the Chinese would fare in trying to occupy Siberia, peacefully or not.
On the gripping hand, India has to be starting to draw some looks of worry from China. A growing and educated population with a land border with China, and a need for more land. The Indian population is about to exceed Chinas in the next couple of years, if not already. Indias military reputation isn’t very good, but neither is Chinas…and they both have the most recent Russian designs and some in house stuff in inventory. The Indian military is no match for China right now, but they are the next threat, something China can’t ignore while the U.S. sails in the South China Sea.
If China is stupid enough to attack Taiwan, they will likely miscalculate and assume Japan, the Philippines and South Korea will sit it out, but given the likely need to strike U.S. bases in at least the Philippines and Japan, I don’t see any of the three sitting it out. North Korea, on the other hand, will keep it’s head down with real missiles flying, hoping to gain from the results, Add the Aussies and some of NATO, and China likely isn’t capable of winning the fight…try to imagine how that split goes to add to a Russian breakup. Manchuria anyone?
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