Tab-Clearing

The speculation will be rampant on who is to blame for the outcome in the Virginia gubernatorial race. My take is as follows:

1. Terry McAuliffe.  He was running to be governor again.  He didn't make the case that he was better than another GOP political neophyte.
2. Joe Biden.  He's not exactly gotten people excited and he's not delivered on his big plans.
3. Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema.  For their personal reasons, which border on megalomania, they've been happy to help sink Biden's agenda.  With friends like the Gang of Two, who needs enemies?  During a war, both of them would be on the Bayonet the Enemy Wounded detail, because nobody would trust them with a loaded firearm.
4. Good old Lee Atwater Southern Strategy racism.  The whole crap about critical race theory is just that.  Critical race theory isn't being taught in elementary or high schools, but that doesn't stop Republicans from doing a Willie Horton on the Democrats.  
5. The economy.  There's often not much a sitting president can do about that, but that's the way it goes.

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I'm not paying much attention to the arguments today in NYSRPA v. Bruen. The fact of the matter is that most states are now "shall issue", with more and more not requiring permits, and the fear of blood running in the streets that has been bruited about since Florida began the modern concealed-carry movement 30+ years ago has not happened. It won't be that big of a stretch to require that the handful of states still operating on "may issue" or "no issue" change.

But I expect that the Supremes will issue an order saying that the named plaintiffs will get their permits and then have some mealy-mouthed dicta about how it applies to the rest of us. Splitting the baby is what they do.

Besides that, if the justices take a hard-right turn on this issue, they will give lots of oxygen to the argument that they really are partisan hacks and that they need to be curbed. Expect that they're well aware of that risk.

The Court is going to do what it can to preserve their own power. Which is probably why the Texan abortion law will be struck down. The Supreme Court has had the final say over the law for over 200 years, they aren't going to let some pissants in Texas change that, regardless of how much they might like the underlying subject of the law.
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For all the ink, both virtual and real, being spilled on the climate summit, my belief is that humanity has missed that bus. The Chinese and the Russians have been having hissy fits because other countries aren't being nice to them, so skipping the climate summit was a case of "so there, nyaahh". China thinks that they can pollute more because reasons.

Here's the thing: They live on the same planet that we do. China's not going to be immune from the effects of climate change because Chairman Xi issues some sort of directive on it, or bans discussion of it. Mother Nature will not be denied or be ignored. The world has been lackadaisical, to say the least, at addressing climate change. This is not a new problem by any stretch of the imagination.

But the nations of the world have ignored it. Some of it has been a race to the bottom, as nobody wants to be the first one to have to spend the money to transform their economies away from emitting carbon and methane emissions while nobody else does. Some of it has been wishful thinking (see Trump; Donald) in that those people think that if they can pretend it's not happening, then it won't happen.

In the 1980s, corrcective action would have been painful, sure, but compared to where we are now, it would have been relatively easy. Now it won't be. If we're going to mitigate the effects of climate change, then brisk and radical action is necessary on a global scale.

But it's not going to happen.

Here is my prediction: For as long as humanity exists, those generations who were in power between 1980 and 2030 will be reviled. Conservatives and capitalists, in particular, will be blamed for being those who did what they could to ensure that nobody did anything meaningful to avoid the catastrophe. The planet will warm, the biosphere is being decimated and whether or not we as a species can survive is arguable.

We are well and truly screwed. If you have small children or grandchildren, you can comfort yourselves when you go to sleep with the knowledge that their lives are going to be far shittier and harder than ours have been. Because we could have done something and we didn't.

Sleep tight.