Based on a series of "table-top" war games, it's becoming clear to the Pentagon that if the Russians go into the Baltic states, there is little NATO can do to stop them.
This situation rests on the shoulders of the Clinton Administration, which entered into talks with the Baltic nations about them joining NATO, and with the Bush Administration, which signed the deal in 2004.
For the casual observer may wonder why it took the running of a series of war games to show that the Baltics are damn near impossible to defend. One might think that all it should have taken was to look at a fucking map.
The planners, faced with the inability to muster enough forces (and to keep them supplied, a topic that is almost never mentioned in the press), are talking about the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
That is insanity on a very great scale.
For the nukes would have to be detonated over Baltic territory. Using them against Russian forces on Russian territory is asking for a larger nuclear response. The Russians aren't going to say: "Oh, they nuked us, but those were tactical nukes." No, Gentle Readers, they are going to take that as an attack on the motherland and if there is anything more sacred in the Russian Oligarchy than money and power, it is the motherland, the Rodina.
The Russians will regard a nuclear weapon being detonated on their soil in the same way that we would.
Need I go on from there?
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When Russia started making rumbles against the Baltic states, someone said to me, "but they're NATO states, if Russia attacks them it means war!" Then I pointed out the same geography that you pointed out -- that it's impossible to get sufficient forces over there and supplied in order to defend them, but more importantly, *THERE IS NO STRATEGIC INTERESTS SERVED BY THE US GOING TO WAR OVER THE BALTICS*. There was a strategic interest involved in going into Iraq (two of'em, actually -- doing Israel's bidding in removing a potential future threat to them, and oil). There's none -- nada, zero, zilch, kapiche -- in going into the Baltics, which belonged to Mother Russia for centuries before the United States even existed, and which have zero resources of any interest to anybody on this planet other than to Russia (which could do with having some extra seaports).
The reality is that nobody's going to use tactical nukes to defend the Baltics. Nobody's going to do a darned thing if Russia invades the Baltics. Except wring their hands and impose sanctions, but that hardly comports with the NATO charter, and basically would make NATO a laughingstock. Which seems pretty much a given.
Oh, some soldiers will go to defend the Baltics. Their orders will, in spirit, be the same as those of the Berlin garrison before the Berlin Wall came down: "Die bravely."
Georgia wants to join NATO. Which is an order of magnitude even more insane.
Oak Ridge National Lab used to have all the info from the 1960s on their website, but it seems to be gone... we don't need to worry about blast and fallout shelters. That is SO 20th Century.
And of course Georgia wants to join NATO. Ukraine is probably wishing they could join NATO.
I think the whole shebang goes back to the collapse of the USSR and the genuine belief that democracy was breaking out throughout the "Second World". For a time, there was discussion of the idea of Russia joining NATO. I never really bought that idea, it seemed to me that NATO viewed Russia as an Ottoman Empire scenario. The slow collapse of an old power causes disruptions to spread on the periphery, so gathering the Baltics in was a move to stabilize the edge of Russia where it neared NATO interests. The reinvigoration of the Russian bear was not foreseen, nor apparently considered; caveat emptor indeed!
I wouldn't say that the Russian bear is reinvigorated, so much as it is now no longer in a coma. It's still a sickly coughing bear that gasps for breath whenever it tries to do anything too energetic. It's still reliant on relics of the Soviet Union to equip most of its military, what few dribbles of modern gear the Russians have managed to produce are clustered around Moscow for the defense of the regime (against whom? Probably as a defense against a coup by those units armed with antique Soviet gear). Still, even a coughing asthmatic bear is not to be trifled with, it just takes one swipe with its paw to eviscerate you....
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