It would seem to be this: An end of hostilities with the Iranians, the Iranians open the Strait, the US drops the blockade, $25 billion in sanctioned Iranian assets are released and the issue of Iran's uranium stockpile and further enrichment are set aside for further negotiation.
To get there, the global economy has been shaken, there will be shortages of many oil-based goods for months to come (not to mention fertilizer and helium), the United States has burned through much of its arsenal of precision weapons, precious military assets have been wasted, allies have been essentially lost (levying tariffs on them didn't help any), and its enemies have been enboldened. And for what?
In short, the United States has spend tens of billions of dollars to end up in a worse position than it was before the war started. It will be lucky if the end deal is within a mile of the agreement that Trump ripped up eight years ago because it was negotiated by Obama. So. Much. Winning.
As for the war itself, the world, not including MAGA, will recognize one point: Trump lost his war.
Which is why Trump will likely pivot to invading Cuba, so he can have a win. Or so he thinks.
The Next Chapter
5 hours ago
10 comments:
We're not out of the woods yet. Iran may not be to recover all of the mines by themselves. I was still an active geo-political forecaster in the JCPOA days and this is for the record:
The latest victim in the presidential race’s assault on truth — to say nothing of nuance — came last week in the flurry of accusations surrounding the United States’ payment of $400 million to Iran. Donald Trump called it ransom, and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) accused the United States of acting like a “drug cartel.”
In reality, the payment represented continued adherence to a masterful feat of American diplomacy and to the peaceful resolution of disputes under international law. Ronald Reagan understood how important it is for us to keep our promises — which is why, as president, he upheld the agreement negotiated by the Carter administration that led to the recent payment.
The payment was not a ransom but rather part of a settlement agreement that the United States reached with Iran for claims arising out of the 1979 Iranian revolution, which toppled the pro-American shah and brought the current Islamist government to power. Before the revolution, the United States had signed hundreds of contracts with Iran, then an ally, to sell it military equipment. When the hostile Islamist regime took power, the military sales relationship collapsed. That left hundreds of millions of dollars of outstanding claims between the two countries and their citizens: claims both by U.S. companies for breached contracts and expropriated properties, and Iranian demands for the delivery or return of equipment that Iran had already paid for but not received — not to mention the issue of the 52 Americans that Iran then held hostage.
https://law.stanford.edu/2016/08/12/the-400-million-payment-to-iran-was-american-diplomacy-at-its-finest/
We can't afford anymore Monty victories
From what I’m reading this afternoon, 47 is already is backing away from the “deal”. Bibi has had a few words with him on the matter, and GOP hawks have chimed in too. The House took a week off so they didn’t have to vote (again) on War Powers, I expect nothing to happen - aside from old mango tits doing more verbal market manipulation.
Lost? I think throwing in the white towel and surrendering is more like it or, if you like; TACO'd
...and, in the end, we'll be lucky if anyone but the Dems and a few independents will know and remember who is to blame for the FUBAR.
The world view?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aNqV9Er1cs
Bibi could be the sticking point
Ah, Jon, but cut off Israel's foreign aid and armament supply and who knows? It might even learn to become a good neighbor and make peace.
A month after the war is actually over it will be Sean Hannity interviewing Trump saying, "You are so humble. You don't take credit for avoiding a ground war with Iran and getting the best deal ever." And the MAGAs will nod their heads, agreeing in unison.
Now he's demanding that more gulf countries join the Abraham Accords as a part of the "deal".
-Doug in Sugar Pine
I'm guessing that "FOAD" is the general response.
Post a Comment