Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Foreign Relations Boil Down to Two Things: Talking With People or Killing Them." -- Unknown

"Mobs Do Not Rush Across Town to Do Good Deeds." -- James Lee Burke

"Colt .45s; putting bad guys underground since 1873." -- Unknown

"Stay Strapped or Get Clapped." -- probably not Mr. Rogers

"Let’s eat all of these people!” — Venom

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Spare Me the Hyperbolic Bullshit


Emotions are rather raw right now. We've had a spate of mass shootings. But it would be nice if people engaged their brains before engaging their keyboards.

The Census Bureau estimates that there are about 53 million K-12 students in this country as of 2018. The number of cops in this country is estimated at over 800,000.

Do the arithmetic with me, if you like. 800,000/20 = 40,000, so one cop in 40,000 has been shot dead so far this year.

53,000,000/33 = 1,606,060, so that is one kid in 1.6 million has been shot dead so far this year.

That's not great, but it's in line with the odds of being struck by lightning.

I'm not sure what arguments people want to make about this or anything else. But when one resorts to using numbers to justify conclusions that are somewhere between rediculous and flat-out wrong, all it does is hurt your argument. And it makes you look like a moron.

16 comments:

Richard said...

I know you like guns. I think adult citizens should be allowed to own a gun or guns. But don't you think there should be some kind of regulation or registration or something? Shouldn't there be something? That kid can't even buy beer and cigarettes, but he can get his hands on a gun and go shoot a bunch of kids? We need a license to drive a car. I think people who want to own a gun should have a license for that.

Joe said...

What a weird response to a bunch of kids getting murdered, arguing that 33 is smaller than 20.

Richard said...

Here is my 2nd brickbat. You quote statistics and say that we don't have a problem. Statiscally,the number of deaths is very small.
Some places have more bullets than others. Statistics are lies, just number crushing. Death and suffering are bigger than statistics. When one of my people dies, it is not a statistic. We have a big problem. When we ask you to please take responsibility for your weapons, and please be more responsible and not run off into cloudcuckooland, we ask you help us please.
Don't be coming around here with statistics.

Dark Avenger said...

The right of nutcases and fools to have more killing power than an average infantry soldier shall not be mentioned or discussed seriously, like we were in Europe or Australia.

Paul W said...

The problem is that children are getting killed by guns, period, and you're here arguing semantics and math.

For the Love of God, guns are murder weapons, and they're being used to KILL CHILDREN.

Please stop defending gun users because quite honestly a good number of them can't be trusted with those weapons of death.

Comrade Misfit said...

In order:

Richard-1, I do think that things have to change. There is enough research out there that shows that teenagers' brains aren't fully formed. I'd move the legal age for buying a semiautomatic to 21.

Joe, I am not arguing that 33 is less than 20. Maybe go back and read the post, again?

Richard-2, noted. Statistics don't matter when it's your kid.

DA and Paul, yes, we have a problem. It goes deeper than guns. Other than mobsters killing each other, there weren't a shit-ton of mass shootings in the 1920s, when anyone could walk into a gun store and buy a Thompson. But teenagers should not be allowed to buy those guns.

Dark Avenger said...

As I noted, both Europe and Australia don’t have such weapons easily available to their respective populations. I’ve yet to see someone make a reasonable case for why we can’t be the same, except for the tiny but significant population of gun owners who fetishize their weapons.

Eck! said...

Before I comment and for clarity, ALL of Those deaths
are unacceptable and horrific to me.

The comment was that the initial Tweet was hyperbolic
and totally misleading and you all seemed to have
missed that. One statement of hyperbolic lie and
one statement of simple fact and several reacted
to that fact as if it were promoting something
terrible instead of pointing out a deliberate lie.

Now the fisk:

Richard, Hunting is a common pastime and the 18 year
olds should be able to have and use a rifle for sporting
and other legal purposes. The problem is a deranged or
otherwise homicidal intending person can get one by
stealing it out of a police car or from any number
of places. So we have civilians restricted and
obeying them but criminals do not obey laws.
Your solution please?

Joe, It was a logical. It was was making clear
the Twitter post was a outright factual lie. That
lie was an appeal to emotions and a form of propaganda.

DA, yep! Hunting rifles tarted up to look like the
military rifles are scary.

Paul W, yes they can be use for murder, or stopping
coyotes from killing chickens, or that dude that broke
in and had evil intent for your wife. Its a tool,
and can be used for good intent or evil. Being
emotional creates bad law there are some 40,000 of
them on the books regarding guns none work as its
criminals (or insane) who ignore law. Many of those
that can't be trusted with anything be it a
broken beer bottle or a car.

Most solutions are of the line of reasoning if
cars that look like race cars should be banned.
If someone uses a racer car in a crime by hitting
someone, we should confiscate all the registered
racer cars to prevent that. The constitution grants
no right to owning cars and 30,000 or so a year die
from accidents involving cars. Seriously, that
would be ridiculous, we all know that, and would
never stand for that.

There is a registry, NICS National Instant Check System,
Some states don't use it!, Private sellers can't use it
to vette a purchaser. Some states do not contribute to
it.
FYI all Firearms seller have the purchaser (its federal
requirement) fill out a 4473, on that form is a lot of
personal detail and the description plus serial number
of the firearm sold. They do get checked in specific
cases. But that purchaser must pass a NICS check to
take possession. That's assuming you are not in a s
tate where there are hurdles to overcome to get in
the Dealers door. For example to buy lead shot
to make weights you must have a FID to purchase ammunition
components. Yet buying a gallon of 87 octane any kid can
do, he might even use it to mow the lawn.

Lets acknowledge a fact, we have states that would
violate federal law and restrict rights and others
that offer unrestricted rights on similar things.
Some states as a fact thumb their noses at the
federal system and do whatever they choose.

With that in mind a federal push to ban certain
firearms will do exactly nothing. because there
will be those states that allow them and do not
needlessly restrict them. Never forget we had the
AWB that restricted AR15 and the like as federal
law. It accomplished NOTHING and was allowed to die
as it served no purpose and infringed on law abiding
citizens.

In the end restricting AR15 or similar has no
practical value as spree killers and terrorists
will circumvent it as they are criminals and it is
what they will do. Let me point out the Ukrainian
irregulars are very successful with empty bottle,
fuel, and a rag. We should then restrict bottles
that could be used to make a molotov cocktail????

Again and to repeat myself. No child or adult
should be allowed to be murdered, anywhere. The
law says homicide is illegal and against the law
for thousands of years.

Yet people are illegally murdered.

Most of this will not be read.



Eck!

Dark Avenger said...

Eck, AFAIK, hunters can still own rifles in many places , including Australia and elsewhere.

CenterPuke88 said...

Noting that this time the “good guys” with guns were already engaging the shooter BEFORE he entered the school, then elected not to try immediate forced entry to the barricaded classroom (where they could hear shots) until SWAT showed. Sorry, it seems that weakens the armed good guy argument a bit. Comrade, 21 seems reasonable, thank you. Otherwise, people seeking this nut jobs musings should have acted!

Comrade Misfit said...

As Eck! noted, my post was about using statistics to reflect reality. Saying that it's more dangerous to be a kid in school than to be a cop is not only a distortion of reality, it is flat-out wrong. And, I can't stress this enough, it destroys the credibility of the person making the argument. There's a difference between being wrong and being in Ya-Ya Land. The guy making the comparison was in the capital of Ya-Ya Land.

CP88, I think the age to buy a semiautomatic should be moved to 21, only because that might be a reasonable goal. It won't happen with putzes like Rafael T. Cruz in the Senate, but it should. Some lunatic kid in his state kills 19 kids and all he can do is bleat about "but muh rights!"

If I had my druthers, I'd move the age to buying semiautomatic guns to 25. Most car rental companies won't rent a car to a person younger than that without extra fees. The exception would be for active-duty military, cops and security company employees.

DA, the fact of the matter is that we have a sticky thing called the Constitution, which the courts have read it to mean that owning a weapon is a civil right that is subject to restrictions if the government can prove an important interest in doing so. "We no likee guns" doesn't cut it. To get to where you want to go will require amending the Constitution or calling a convention and rewriting it, then getting 38 states to agree with whatever's been done. I don't see that happening and, to my mind, talking about how we ought to go the way of Australia or England is a fucking waste of time.

Ten Bears said...

I get in enough trouble around here without looking for it, yet ...

This isn't about guns. Not this one. I know that kid. No no no, never met seen him or heard of him before, but as the product of mid-fifties promiscuous pregnancy and sixties serial Southern California divorce, the bastard nobody wanted, raised by my grandma whose pleading I denied, I know that kid. I know what the next forty-nine years of his life would look like.

I've got a pretty bad attitude (full stop) about the ready access to firearms, probably because I still own an old huntin' rifle, revolver. It's the culture I grew up in, that's all a man ever needs.

I also understand why some people do some of the things they do ...

dinthebeast said...

A court just struck down the law we had in California limiting the purchase of semiautomatics to those over the age of 21.
I've been a gun owner since I was nine years old, but the single shot .410 Montgomery Ward Western Field shotgun I got for Christmas in 1970 wouldn't have been prohibited by the law.
I would love to believe that some sane, fair and effective measures could be taken to reduce the number of senseless shootings in this country, but as long as the Republicans are still a major political party, I just don't.

-Doug in Sugar Pine

CenterPuke88 said...

Looked over the school layout. Seems the classroom should have had windows, so the cops could have tried drawing his fire and/or shot in once he started shooting. Yea, it’s a terrible choice, shooting into a classroom of kids…but…

25 sounds good, and I’m OK with capacity limits, when established for a clear reason…we can debate another time.

Richard said...

Oh please, Eck and Misfit, you don't know the difference between a hunting rifle and a semi-automatic? When is the last time you shot a deer for food? Or maybe took out your good old trusty shotgun to get some ducks or get rid of some pesky ground squirrels, or that feral cat? Or that skunk?
Don't be giving me these lies. For some reason, you like these people killer type guns. Can you explain why?

Comrade Misfit said...

Yellow card, Richard, for being a patently-offensive, self-righteous prick.

We’re done, here.