Words of Advice:

"Never Feel Sorry For Anyone Who Owns an Airplane."-- Tina Marie

"
If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"
Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground
Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It.
" -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Brexit, or "What Happens When the Dog Catches the Car?"

With their giddy celebrations of “independence day” having given way to political and economic turmoil, one thing has become especially clear about the former London mayor Boris Johnson and other leaders of the successful campaign to vote Britain out of the European Union: They had no plan for what comes next.

In the days since Britain voted to leave the bloc, the movement’s leaders have often appeared as if they had not expected to win and were not prepared to cope with the consequences. Faced with the scope of the decision, they have been busy walking back promises they made during the campaign and scaling back expectations. They have failed to show a united front or to answer basic questions.
I don't suspect that there is any "appeared as if they had not expected to win"-- they didn't expect to. They expected to lose, but not by a lot, and then use it as a cudgel to gain seats in Parliament where the local reps were pro-EU and the vote was pro-Brexit.

Now they have to face up to their lies and hype. The EU is signaling to the Brits that they should go sooner rather than later, and if they expect to be allowed to continue to be part of the EU single market, they're smoking crack.

The pro-Brexit folks are saying that Britain should have the same sort of access that Norway has. Which probably won't happen. Norway never fully joined the EU, they are sort of "friends with benefits", if you will. Britain has told the EU that they want a divorce; the formal triggering of Article 50 will be like filing for divorce.

In this case, it'll be more like a contested divorce, in which the EU and the Brits will fight over the terms, especially since the EU will want to signal to other countries contemplating leaving that future divorcées of the EU will pay a heavy price. Contested divorces are often nasty as all fuck, as "Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned." There will be large amounts of butthurt on both sides that will take decades for both sides to get over.

In advance of Article 50 being triggered, look for the EU to freeze the Brits out of almost all participation in whatever passes for bureaucratic and political processes in Brussels.

John Oliver on this.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Juncker isn't helping matters any: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-i-voted-referendum-jean-claude-juncker-europe-angela-merkel-bitter-arrogant-response-a7107336.html

Merkel seems to have retained a sense of proportion.

Ed said...

Brexit: Aftermath | Paul Joseph Watson and Stefan Molyneux https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbZ9EIOQzXU