Cargolux has refused to take delivery of the first 747-8 for "contractual" reasons. The reason seems to be that Qatar Airways owns a third of Cargolux and is using that leverage to squeeze Boeing over the 787 program. Meanwhile, Atlas Air has terminated its order for three of the jets, saying that they are looking at other options.
For a freighter that size, if it's not an Airbus-380 or an Antonov-124, I don't know what else could be on the table.
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The Airbus 380 freighter has been cancelled, and Antonov-124's aren't going to be bought by anybody other than a government or national airlines of Ukraine/Russia because a) they're maintenance hogs that cost a fortune to operate, b) they're lawsuit magnets due to in no way meeting Western standards for safety/noise emissions/etc., and c) the infrastructure for training and maintenance simply don't exist for civilian use of the things outside of Ukraine/Russia. The reality is that it's so expensive to operate that few operators can justify having one full-time, there just isn't many jobs that need an AN-124. So most people who need the AN-124's capabilities for one-time or occasional jobs charter it from one of the current operators complete with pilots and ground crews and etc. for however long it takes to perform the tasks they need done, rather than consider actually purchasing one.
My guess is that both Atlas and Cargolux over-ordered given the global downturn in air cargo carriage. Add in the fact that the 747-8 came in over-weight and under-range, and they have to be thinking, "hmm, we can get smaller cargo planes that will be cheaper to operate with the same range as the 747-8, can we put those on our less busy routes and save money over a 747-8?"
In short, my guess is that it's the economy that's the problem, compounded by the fact that the 747-8 doesn't have the promised range and cargo capacity, and the rest of this is just excuses and posturing trying to get better deals on remaining 747-8's (or on 787's in the case of Qatar). Cue the lawyers, 'cause you better believe there's going to be some lawsuits flying here even if the 747-8's aren't :}.
- Badtux the Air Penguin
It's probably not a coincidence that this all happened a few days before IATA reduced its forecast of next year's air cargo volume.
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