Just an Earth-Bound Misfit: The Rantings of an Aging, Armed, Pinko Chick

Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

“The Mob takes the Fifth. If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?” -- The TOFF *

"Foreign Relations Boil Down to Two Things: Talking With People or Killing Them." -- Unknown

“Speed is a poor substitute for accuracy.” -- Real, no-shit, fortune from a fortune cookie

"If you believe that you are talking to G-d, you can justify anything.” — my Dad

"Colt .45s; putting bad guys in the ground since 1873." -- Unknown

"Stay Strapped or Get Clapped." -- probably not Mr. Rogers

"The Dildo of Karma rarely comes lubed." -- Unknown

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

* "TOFF" = Treasonous Orange Fat Fuck, A/K/A Dolt-45,
A/K/A Commandante (or Cadet) Bone Spurs,
A/K/A El Caudillo de Mar-a-Lago, A/K/A the Asset., A/K/A P01135809

Monday, April 4, 2022

Is China Done?

An argument that they are, or soon will be.

Labor costs are skyrocketing, but productivity is not matching it.

For all the talk of the PLA growing in size and effectiveness, China's oil supply depends on the United States Navy to keep the peace. They don't have the power to protect it. A blue-water navy is not something that can be orderd from shipyards and put into service in five or ten years.

The United States would face similar demographic issues as does China (and Russia and Japan), but it doesn't. The reason for that is immigration. If immigration is choked off, then the United States will go down the road being trod by those other nations.

And that is the point that the Trumpanzees and the xenophobic lobby keeps willfully ignoring.

9 comments:

BadTux said...: Yeah, we were supposed to be having an issue with paying Social Security because there would not be enough workers for all the retirees. Well, that's pretty much off the table now. The only reason we might have an issue with paying Social Security in the future is because wealth concentration means that the wealthy have all the money now, leaving none for Social Security. Removing the cap on the Social Security tax would fix that.

That said, China has plenty of people to run an advanced economy. The problem is that vast parts of the Chinese economy are *not* an advanced economy. They're reliant on stoop labor for tasks that have long been automated in the West. We'll have to see how that gets handled. If the Chinese don't finish modernizing their economy, yeah, they are in trouble.; 4/04/2022 2:25 PM
Tod Germanica said...: It looks like the advent of 'Technicals' (Toyota 4x4 trucks armed with rockets and heavy MGs) and cheap effective drones are killing off the armored vehicle, or at least the MBT, as we used to know it.
And we know air power killed off the battleship. Does this mean military force projection through aircraft carrier groups is also problematical?
Maybe not Russia's, but could swarms of hypersonic missiles or stealth drones sink a fleet? How would you defend it?
Since it seems lots of drones and AI come out of China. And they have stealth fighters and a space industry too.; 4/04/2022 7:02 PM
Jones, Jon Jones said...: Still in the raw stage
https://themarket.ch/interview/china-is-facing-a-big-contradiction-between-its-politics-and-its-economics-ld.6378?mktcid=smsh&mktcval=LinkedIn; 4/04/2022 8:07 PM
B said...: Legal immigration, yes. Illegal immigration where folks cross the border and become "Shadow Citizens" who don't contribute to the social safety net, not so much.

Big difference.; 4/04/2022 8:21 PM
B in Colorado said...: B above is incorrect. Undocumented people mostly do pay FICA and income tax, but do not qualify to collect social security or for many other benefits. It's credited to someone other than them. They are a net gain for the federal budget and probably a loss at local and state level.; 4/04/2022 11:56 PM
Stewart Dean said...: B, Plenty of illegals, if not most, pay into the social safety net but will never get a cent of it, because a) it's hard to get a job without a SS# and b) they use faked ones they will never accrue to them.; 4/05/2022 5:00 AM
Ten Bears said...: Laugh. Out. Loud ...

I wouldn't count China down anytime soon, they've been a dysfunctional society for five thousand years; with territorial claims to Siberia that predate Yurp. Russia claims that all territory, it doesn't control all that territory. Japan is already moving to reclaim its northern islands.

Turn of the century I was still teaching and made the observation numerous times the Sino/Chinese sphere of influence will be the twentieth century sphere of influence. It may be why I am no longer teaching (well, one reason).

I wouldn't count China down at all ...; 4/05/2022 7:04 AM
Dark Avenger said...: Tell us about it, B. Tell us about it, these awful illegals sneaking in here to take monotonous, dangerous, backbreaking, and underpaid work from decent legal residents and law-abiding citizens. Let us fear these masses, underrepresented in prisons, doing all they can to destroy our American way of life.; 4/05/2022 8:54 AM
MarkS said...: I would like to point to Paul Krugman's revising ( he's not averse to changing his statements when he receives new information)that the tight labor market is due to the "great resignation" in which people left the labor pool due to reassessing their priorities due to Covid. Turns out that the data now points to the tight labor market being caused by reduced immigration.; 4/05/2022 6:04 PM