North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump plan to meet in May for nuclear disarmament talks, a whiplash development that would put two leaders who’ve repeatedly insulted, threatened and dismissed each other in the same room, possibly in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.While I think that fully crediting Trump with this is not accurate, at least he is moving on these developments.
I am skeptical that Trump has the discipline for diplomatic negotiations. He's too prone to run his mouth, whether to reporters, an audience or on Twitter. Trump will likely say something or do something to wreck any chance of a deal, for he seems to have a remarkable talent for self-sabotage. Especially if one of his manipulative advisers obsequiously flatters Trump into it.
And I'm somewhat convinced that the North Koreans have studied Trump and they have a grasp on how they can manipulate him into a deal that is very favorable to them. Hell, a few mentions that Trump might get a Nobel Peace Prize out of it and he'd sell Don Jr. to organ harvesters.
But if Trump can keep his shit together long enough to craft a reasonable deal with the NORKs, then that will go a long way into turning his presidency into a "mitigated disaster".
12 comments:
I think we need to wait and see what deal Putin wants.
"...he'd sell Don Jr. to organ harvesters."
So, win-win?
Come on now. Our resident can't talk in complete sentences and doesn't understand diplomacy at all.
Do you really think anything can come from meeting with the North Koreans?
Waste of time and likely a Big F'up ahead as I see it.
w3ski
I agree, this could be a good thing, perhaps even a thing only a very impulsive president like him could do.
It would be nice to have a functioning state department, ambassador to South Korea, or special envoy in charge of North Korea to assist in the preparations for such a meeting, but we don't, and that is not this president's MO anyway, so I guess we'll get what we get.
I have to say, though, Kim Jong-un has played this almost masterfully. He has achieved the goals of his father and grandfather almost to the letter: He now has nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them according to our own military intelligence, so he actually has something to negotiate with, and now he's been accepted onto the world stage for a meeting with the US president, out of the pariah status his country has been under since what? the fifties?
That doesn't make him good, or help the desperate nature of the situation his people live in, but as for achieving his goals, he's done well, for a crazy-ass dictator of an isolated and impoverished country.
I wonder what China thinks of these developments?
-Doug in Oakland
The Declaration of Independence reads: "to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them." Kim would come out of this meeting with the stamp of legitimacy as equally sovereign as the US. It is like the Nixon-Kennedy debate. It elevated Kennedy to a level with the VP.
In the words of Admiral Ackbar, “IT’S A TRAP!” Putin has something on Trump from the Ms. Universe pageant in Moscow (pee pee tape, under age girl, ???) that they are using to influence him. This would be an opportunity for China to obtain something of their own to wield against Trump.
Or should I see someone about these voices in my head?
Dale
Kim is still his father's son. You can read Donnie Two Scoops like a book.
Inspector O chimed in awhile back.
https://www.38north.org/2017/09/jchurch092117/
I suspect that Donnie hasn't grasped the real meaning of denuclearization. The basic NK premise will be you pull all the U.S. tropps out and we destory the nukes. Donnie will never agree to that, the NK's declare it's all Donnie's fault and go back to rocket testing.
Dough, the Chinese are probably thrilled. They are afraid of a collapsing regime, which may send waves of fleeing, starving people across the Chinese border.
The White House is already walking it back.
What I read was that they issued a public statement of support while privately worrying about what kind of leverage the US could end up with should Kim turn away from them and toward the west. But you're right about the fear of a collapsing regime; they probably worry about what would happen if the people of North Korea find out what an iPhone is.
Color me skeptical that this meeting will reverse geopolitics where the peninsula is concerned, but if it's good, then great.
-Doug in Oakland
Comrade, the Chinese may dislike the idea of the starving masses, but they dislike more the idea that the South Korean army would be on their border. I would be most interested in knowing what units the Chinese have on and around the North Korean border and how that composition has changed over the years. If the Chinese genuinely feared a collapse, I would expect more units in the area to be engineers and supply units, along with MP trained units. The use of everyday troops would result in a crisis within a couple of months as clashes between the troops and the North Koreans occurred due to mistakes by the ill-trained conscripts.
The Chinese have a very good idea of what is actually going on in North Korea. With all the refugees that flee across the border, they get their pick of the ones to squeeze or recruit. Chinese intel seems pretty good, and not distracted by trying to make the actions of others fit a political viewpoint. They no doubt have a much better understanding of what this is about, so it makes me wonder...what are the Chinese says and doing about this? Not “officially”, but rather in ways that will get back to U.S. Intelligence and potentially color our plans (and Donnie’s briefing, if he even accepts one).
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