Words of Advice:

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming from China. It's going to be just fine." -- Donald Trump, 1/22/2020

“We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here..and isn't it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama."
-- Trump Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, 2/25/20

"I don't take responsibility for anything." --Donald Trump, 3/13/20

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Next Pandemic Question

With schools closing for weeks, where do the kids go? A hell of a lot of families have to have two people working in order to make the rent, pay the bills and eat. The schools function as de facto day-care facilities for working families.

The kids can't be let on their own, lest they get into trouble, and then the parents will get into trouble for failure to supervise. So one responsible adult has to stay home, which will lead to an increase in evictions, homelessness and so on.

Our modern life has a lot of tiny pieces that are interdependent. Once some things stop being present, a lot of other things are going to seize up.

This will be an interesting time for historians to study. For those of us living in it, the old Chinese curse is proving true.

8 comments:

MarkS said...

There's a supply-chain lesson tucked in there somewhere,not that we'll ever learn it. The percentage of our population that is one paycheck away from homelessness seems to be approaching critical mass.

seafury said...

"May you live in interesting times "

CenterPuke88 said...

So, stocked up on some basics Thursday morning, slightly above normal shopper load. Every 10th shopper had a big package of toilet paper.

Out Thursday afternoon for something forgotten to make dinner, heavy shopper load, every 5th shopper with TP. Canned products with significant gaps on the shelves.

Friday lunch, stopped in for some non-essentials and saw a pre-hurricane feel in the stores, every 2nd shopper with TP, more registers open than I’d ever seen. Massive open spaces on shelves.

Friday at dinner time, over to a Trader Joe’s for some two buck Chuck, and was amazed to see people 8 deep at the registers, with EVERY register open! Their frozen section was badly picked over, and was completely empty in over 50% of it.

Friends and family texting asking about where might have TP...WTF people!

Stewart Dean said...

Me I've been using a Brondell bidet seat for 5-8 years....
but the missus wants it, so...

My pandemic question is prisons and any place that has dormitory style bunks...summer camps and the like.

A friend just remarked that he had seen a set of curves describing the best and the worst upsurge bell curves, the best being the flattest that would actually be manageable by our medical system.
But.
Best care wouldn't start to go down the other descending side of the bell curve until November. The worse case would after a devastating aftermath, with key people everywhere dead or n o longer able to do their jobs. And restarting an economy isn't like flipping a switch in a dark room

CoVid19 detailed statistics and epidemiology from an Amherst college classmate. It's detailed and a 12MB file, so I have put it online at my website:
http://sdean.net/medical/The%20Need%20for%20social%20distancing%20NOW%20PDF.pdf

Andrew Sullivan, the oddball British expat, Catholic, gay, truly (conserving) conservative has written an opinion piece on how we are so screwed based on his experience with, of course , HIV/AIDS and the denial that happened there/then.
https://andrewsullivan.us3.list-manage.com/track/click?u=92b1a944631220d6b867072a6&id=e39742a8cf&e=faf6ee4a20

WASF.

Eck! said...

See JIT,

Too many families for whatever reasons run as JIT, if they need it run
out for some. Horribly inefficient, burns time and gas.

As a result things run out at random, the home systems have no low
water flag to warn thee is only some many days of stuff left. If one
was nominally doing the weekly or monthly shopping it would seem horrific.

Some of us hate doing it. We buy for anywhere from weeks to months
and watch the levels for a good opportunity (bargins and discounts)
to refresh the stocks.

Thankfully that was two weeks ago.

The other end of this is basic preparedness. I live in an area where
a snow shutdown for a day or three is not rare, ice storms too. So
maintaining a stock so going out in bad weather is not needed is
prudent if not good planning, and in some cases not possible.

Begs the question on the average without special prodding
(Stormageddon or VIRUS!) how long are the household supplies
good for?

For those constrained by money or space this is going to be tough.
Between price gouging and low availability those are the people
most hurt.


Eck!

Tod Germanica said...

Good point, who's going to care for all the children? Where's the money going to come from to pay for the lunches for the very poor?
Cp88
Similar to my experience, like south Alabama hurricane buying minus the plywood sheeting. And it's not panic buying, it's prudent buying. Take a look at the millions of Italians imprisoned in their homes for weeks. Except for Glenn Filthy, you're gonna need TP and food. Interesting times indeed. Let's all stay in touch cyberly if not hand in hand.

dinthebeast said...

A woman behind the counter at the dollar store was trying to explain to her customers when she would have TP back in stock last night when the guy she was talking to asked her why she thought people were hoarding TP now.
She said that most of the people buying large amounts of it were afraid the virus might give them diarrhea, and nothing she told them would convince them otherwise.
I think the reason NYC hasn't closed all of its schools is those schools' role in childcare and the feeding of poor kids and homeless kids.

-Doug in Oakland

CenterPuke88 said...

Doug, the kids are a very valid concern. Our school district has announced that 5 of the 23 elementary schools will open meal stations for lunch. Anyone can drive through and receive a free lunch (repurposed already bought school lunches since we’re shutdown for two weeks) for each kid in the vehicle. No proof of poverty, age, enrollment or need required, we’re gonna feed the kids. The five chosen schools contain the highest number of free or reduced price eligible kids.