Apparently, thanks to advanced IFF and or C&C technology, the Ukrainians were able to mark their tanks and APCs as Russian vehicles, infiltrate the Orcs' lines and then shoot the shit out of them. While the Orcs, who had nothing like that, were milling about in confusion.
It seems that the Ukrainin commanders have gotten inside their enemy's OODA loop. The Ukrainians have adopted Western ideas on command and control, pushing authority for making on-the-spot decisions down to those on the battlefield. The Russians have kept their centralized methods of control. So the Ukrainians can react and adapt to a situation far faster than the Russians.
The Russians can't change that, which is why, buy their semi-mass mobilization they seem to be opting for flooding the battlefield with half-trained troops. That might not go over so well back home.
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I was applying chapter nine of The Dictators Handbook from the get go. How democracies and autocracies fight war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyqopsYNEc
Ukraine, in this case, got Western help with intel, training, planning and logistics.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/social-media-joke-about-annexing-russias-kaliningrad-goes-viral-3406292
Is there a law of war that says it you are not marked as an enemy combatant, you could be killed as a spy?
Ukraine is going to win. What are the next steps?
1. Truce/cease fire.
2. Negotiations commence.
3. There are going to be a lot of parties on the dance floor.
4. This is a good level set for Turkey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdSr3RqkqYg
No one is going to be happy with the sausage, but it will keep the peace is what I am looking for.
Yes, Ukraine is going to win. And twenty or thirty years later, a new wannabee autocrat will arise who will gloss over the failures of the Russian military, claim that Russia was stabbed in the back by the perfidious West and the Jews, and that only he can Make Russia Great Again.
Wayne, possibly. But, in a war in which the Orcs have been deliberately smashing civilian housing, schools, shelters and hospitals, mismarking vehicles is pretty small beer.
What do we think we know?
1. NATO will have two new members.
2. EU NATO defense spending will largely be on Western kit.
3. It will take around a decade for it to percolate thru the system.
4. It's spending Russia can't match.
5. According to the Economist, Olaf Schulz wants $97bn for defense in the current budget.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/09/29/europes-plans-for-laxer-spending-rules-shows-german-influence-is-waning
6. Ukraine looks like they are going to be on the Western side of the chess board.
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