The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment. Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use.
The question, then, becomes whether or not Putler will take those realities into account. If so, then the qustion is whether or not Putler will order a nuclear strike on Kyiv. And then whether or not those orders will be obeyed.
Russia, as I observed several months ago, is on its way to becoming North Korea, but with better ballet and more food.
5 comments:
I'm totally going to steal this line:
Russia is, as I observed several months ago, is on its way to becoming North Korea, but with better ballet and more food.
The more interesting question is will Putin strike at a Polish airfield, or the marshaling yard just inside Ukraine where supplies are being delivered?
A nuclear strike on Kyiv is likely beyond even him, for now. A “tactical” strike against the UAR force currently threatening to roll up his flank in the south is not. In that case, Vlad’s troops wouldn’t have to deploy/fight through that area. Now, what then would the response be?
My guess is an immediate cruise missile barrage against the Black Sea Fleet and its base, plus the Kerch bridge, with a phone call to Vlad explaining the next step if he doesn’t back the fuck up…followed by a call to Lukashenko enquiring if he wants his military smashed or he’d prefer to set up some transit corridors.
Funny, but terribly not funny. It does a people no good to be so marginalized. We are placing them in solitary confinement, shunning them....and these are a people with already too much darkness in their souls and their history. They do so greatly need light and to be appreciated for their gifts, to let their fears and paranoia fall away. Putin is a Lucifer leading them deeper into Hell.
Stewart, true, but then again, so, what? People suffer for the bad decisions of their leaders. That has been true since time immemorial.
The Russian people are indeed going to suffer more under Putin. But the fact that Putin is their leader is not our problem to fix. I don't see how we can honor Russian culture at the same time condemning their brutality.
(Though, appropriating Beethoven's Fifth Symphony as a signal of the Allies was a masterful bit of ratfucking German culture.)
What I am hoping (only hoping) for is deprogramming for that wretched country. It does no one any good to live next door to people so paranoid, insecure and alcoholic (in so many ways), crazed by a millennium of despotism, serfdom and pillage.
After all, the world helped the Germans come back from Nazism, and everyone sleeps easier. They make good reliable cars that are interesting to drive and the world is a better place. See how easy that was (not)?
We need to some how get them off the ledge and keep them from taking the rest of the world with them. North Korea we can ignore, Russia's more problematic
There's too much in this line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1-UkiVhdsw
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