The Russians have announced that they are moving S-300 and S-400 missile systems to their Syrian airbases. The Russians also moved the cruiser Moskva closer to Syria, so that she can cover the area with her air defense missiles.
It take no great feat of imagination to suppose that a Turkish jet that puts so much as a wingtip into Syrian airspace will be blown out of the sky. The Russians will proclaim that they were only defending the sovereignty of their ally, Syria. They'll claim that they gave the Turkish jet notice. The Turks will deny everything and point to how their jet crashed in Turkey itself.
Which, as you no doubt have already concluded, is the storyline of the shooting down of the Russian jet, only with the names reversed.
At the same time, expect some kinetic urban renewal from the Russians, directed at the people who killed the Russian pilot in his parachute.
In the meantime, all across NATO, governments are scrutinizing their copies of their NATO treaties and trying to find wriggle room to get them from having to go to war over this. For we are on the verge of getting into a shooting war, one in which the main belligerents on both sides have nuclear weapons.
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I like the phrase "...kinetic urban renewal..." and wouldn't be surprised if we see some. Putin knows what he wants and tends to just go ahead and do it. Meanwhile, when it comes to NATO, that advice about avoiding entangling alliances sounds pretty good right now.
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