As of this writing, I don't see a road to peace in Eastern Europe. Putin's demands that Ukraine submit to a 21st Century version of Finlandization and surrender much if not all of their sovereignity are non-starters. He's gotten his country to the point where they can't back down, much as the Germans did in 1914 (where, as the story goes, they had no plans to demobilize after mobilizing). But in Putin's case, there is no way that he can back down without Ukraine and NATO giving him what they cannot give.
I suspect that the Russian people themselves have no taste for going to war over Ukraine. But their views probably don't count for much. Now.
The only hope is that Putin will figure out that a war with Ukraine will result in everything that he doesn't want to see happen: A strengthened NATO, and more American military involvement. The nations on Russia's periphery will ramp up their defense spending. The Nordic nations that were neutral or Russian-tinged during the Cold War will align themselves, formally or informally, with NATO. But if he backs down without gaining some of what he wants, he'll be a paper tiger. Half-a-million dead will be a small price for Putin if it enhances his image as a strong man.
The risk is of a mistake. There is a history of antiaircraft missile batteries being a little trigger-happy. If a Russian battery near Ukraine's western border fires on a NATO warplane over NATO airspace, it may be game on.
Admiral Painter had it right:
With a hot war started by the Russians, we'll be a whisker, one miscalculation by a junior officer or senior NCO, from a situation where Russians and NATO forces, if not American forces, are firing at each other. A shooting war between nuclear-armed nations is something that the world has avoided since 1949, in a number of cases by a whisker, but here we are. There is no such thing as tactical nuclear weapons. What is "tactical" to one side may be "strategic" and then things are going to be so over for civilization.
This business will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
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8 comments:
https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/#1558
Jon, what is the importance of that page? What is their claim to expertise?
The genesis is from IARPA/ACE
http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16511/jdm16511.html
They get paid by an outfit run by Warren Hatch
https://goodjudgment.com/
This is the briar patch of the sick and twisted - not many have a taste for it and I'm well retired. All the easy bounties have been hunted, but the world commands your attention from time to time...
They're not the only player in the game. If you become curious about the science of it, then we should switch to a better bat channel.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-hatch/
On the other hand, oil is up near $100/barrel.
-Doug in Sugar Pine
And then there is Zero Hedge, which allegedly is an outlet for Russian propaganda.
But it's not just this administration saying that. This is one article about Zero Hedge being a Russian tool. There are others, such as this one.
Almanis is down to 17% on invasion.
https://app.dysruptlabs.com/#questions/feff3601-45f8-47bb-a866-11ecc49e0cc3?=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%3D%3D
Holy shit, that looks like LCDR Data’s password.
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