Words of Advice:

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming from China. It's going to be just fine." -- Donald Trump, 1/22/2020

“We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here..and isn't it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama."
-- Trump Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, 2/25/20

"I don't take responsibility for anything." --Donald Trump, 3/13/20

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

"Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Coming Academic Apocalypse

According to a story about Hampshire College in the WaPo, the number of kids going to college will drop by 280,000. The cause, if you run the calendar back, is the fall in birthrates during the Great Recession. That's happened in every bad economic downturn.

It's not just colleges that are going to feel this. The military will find it harder and harder to meet recruiting targets.

In 2007, the birthrate for women was 2.12, the highest it had been since 1971. It's fallen since and is now at 1.76, which is also well below the replacement rate. Keeping our population up hasn't historically been a problem, thanks to immigration.

But with immigration-phobic Stephen Miller driving the Trump Train on this, we can no longer count on immigrants to boost our population.


B said...

IF you allow too much immigration (even legal, rather than what the DNC wants, immigration) then effectively you change the country and society into something else.

Even Angela Merkel has figured this out.

The New York Crank said...

B: The country has always, always, always have had waves of immigration. In the early to mid 19th Century, Irish immigrants were arriving on the docks of New York at the rate of 15,000 a week. The establishment was, of course, horrified. Ditto, at different times in history, waves of Italian immigration, German immigration, Jewish immigration, Asian immigration, on and offing on.

All of these immigrants made America a stronger, more innovative, more ambitious place. Choke off the immigration and you strangle America. Go choke on that thought for a while.

Yours very crankily,
The New York Crank

B said...


I am the descendant of one of those Mexican immigrants. They, of course, were legal.
His wife was descended from Irish who were some of those you mentioned above.

My paternal grandfather was of english and polish descent (again, immigrants) and the other half of my dads family was german immigrants.

The thing that makes them different than the current immigrants? They came here to stay and they MADE THIS COUNTRY THEIR HOME. Also they cam in legally.

In other words, they assimilated to the country...they learned the language.... they did not want the country to change for them. Yes, they changed the culture...every wave of immigrants does. But more importantly, they changed themselves and adapted to and accepted the dominant culture as their own.

Comrade Misfit said...

Last time I checked, there basically no route to legally emigrate from Central America, other than via asylum.

So the "they can come here legallly" argument is a failure.

CenterPuke88 said...

Ah, the dulcet tones of revisionism. Do tell of which “wave” of “legal” Mexican immigration they arrived in....because, news flash, there haven’t been waves of legal Mexican immigration. Prior to about 1917, Mexicans freely entered the U.S., but that isn’t the legal immigration you refer to...there wasn’t any concept of legal or illegal then, and that shoots that argument in the foot. After that, till about 1965, Mexicans got exempted from literacy tests...meaning they got in not speaking English...and studies showed they didn’t learn English, because they were here to pick crops. Starting in 1965, the door was slammed shut.

Dr Roy Tam said...


Your ancestors were very likely undocumented immigrants, too.

Every time policies and practices against undocumented immigrants dominate the news a vast array of memes and messages circulate from Americans who believe that their immigrant ancestors have nothing in common with today's undocumented immigrants.

Why? Because their ancestors came to the US legally and, as is often claimed, "waited their turn," "didn't ask for any handouts." Take the following, for example:

It's a popular argument, but a quick look at the history of immigration history in the US reveals that it does not make any sense.

Did your ancestors arrive in the US before WWI? Then they were very likely undocumented too. When Annie Moore, the first immigrant to be processed through Ellis Island, arrived there from Ireland on January 1, 1892, she would not have been asked for a visa or a passport. Instead, ship's captains handed over the manifests and vouched for the names and origins of their passengers.

The Immigration Act of 1917 put in place further restrictions, barring those who were physically or mentally ill and imposing a literacy test - reading 30 - 40 words in your native language - on all those above the age of 16, in addition to barring immigration from much of Asia and the Pacific Islands.

The concept of being documented didn't arrive until the mid-1920s. Per National Geographic:

"the idea of a worldwide passport standard emerged in the aftermath of the First World War, championed by the League of Nations, a body tasked with the heavy burden of maintaining peace. A year later, perhaps recognizing a political opportunity, the U.S. passed the Emergency Quota Act of 1921 and later, the Immigration Act of 1924 limiting the inflow of immigrants. The emergency? Too many newcomers from countries deemed a threat to “the ideal of American hegemony.” How to identify an immigrant’s country of origin? By a newly minted passport, of course."

Moore, a hero to so many, is also a classic late-1800s example of chain migration. When she arrived from Co. Cork with her two younger brothers in tow, it was to reunite with her parents, siblings, and other family members who had already made the journey to the US.

The first widely restrictive legislation came with the National Origins Act of 1924, which established visa requirements and regional quotas, with especially restrictive measures for those from Asian and Eastern European countries. However, many hopeful immigrants continued to enter the US illegally during this time, something the US eventually acknowledged and allowed for.

As noted in a Philadelphia Inquirer article on the same topic:

"Responding to the nation’s large number of undocumented immigrants, the federal government implemented the 1929 Registry Act, which allowed them to register as permanent residents for $20 if they could prove they had lived in the country since 1921 and were of “good moral character.” More than 115,000 registered from 1930 to 1940, at least 200,000 more after that."

In short, comparing what it meant to immigrate to the US back in the 1700s, 1800s, and early 1900s to the requirements for immigration today is comparing apples and oranges - or maybe even apples and a porcelain orange figurine from the Edwardian era.

If your family has been in America for generations, your original immigrant ancestor was essentially crossing an open border, had a more than 98% chance of being admitted to the US, and an easy enough pathway to becoming a naturalized citizen.

B, you mention your ancestors were Mexican. Unless they were 100% American Indian, their ancestors probably didn’t immigrate to Mexico “legally” as well.

The Irish changed America with their “corned beef”, which actually was an European Jewish specialty. I’m sure the ruling WASP class of the time objected to the Irish and their way as being Anti-American.

Glenn Kelley said...

The US takes in one million legal immigrants a year ,the most of any country in the world .
But, on a per capita basis Canada takes in three times as many.The US and Canada are about the only countries in the world that encourage immigration , but movement from the developing to developed countries is slowing . World wide the birth rate is dropping .India is at 2.1 births per woman .

Assimilation is a two way street they have to be welcomed and encouraged to want to stay . Life in their countries of origin is getting better at a very fast rate . Many come to the" first world " and find out they were better off back home and unlike immigrants even 60 years ago they can get back there in a matter of hours for very little money .

If you want an adequate tax base the US needs to increase the flow of immigrants and ease the process to enter the country .

DTWND said...

You people keep presenting facts? Geez Louise. Many of the folks that want to stop immigration just KNOW that the immigrants are bad hombres. Our prezdint says so, that's enough for them. If they ain't white, then they ain't right.


Dr Roy Tam said...

This is almost like shooting fish in a barrel, so here goes:

If American jobs are being taken over by drug-dealing rapist gang members coming from over the border

What does that say about American jobs?