The near-collapse of the Russian army near Kharkiv begs the question: What can the Russians do, now?
The Russians seem to be running out of available soldiers. Other places where the Russians are involved are taking note. Putin has been trying to keep to his bargain with the Russian people: He gets to run political, military and foreign affairs as he sees fit and the people are left alone to live their lives. But there is pressure to stop with the "special military operation" bullshit and declare it to be a war.
But then what? Even if Putin orders mobilization and a massive traft, those draftees need to be trained, which will take months and lots of trainers. Unless, of course, Putin would send them into combat barely trained, which would make them more cannon-fodder than soldiers.
Another problem that Russia has is that they find themselves in the same position as Nazi Germany: They only have the resources that they can command. The North Koreans will sell them old equipment, the Iranians will sell them drones, but that's about it. Nobody else will, at least, not openly, for fear of incurring sanctions from the western nations.
As the Ukrainians make gains on the battlefield, more and more tales of Russian brutality have come to light. All give the lie to the Russian claim that there is no difference between Russians and Ukrainians. The Russians claim that they are trying to "de-Nazify" Ukraine, but the truth of the matter is that if there are Nazis in this war, they are Russians.
Putin well knows that his own survival depends on the aura of competence and power that he has in Russia. Fallibility is often fatal in Russia. There is no incentive for him to stop the war on anything less than terms favorable to Russia, which apparently is not going to happen in the near future. Besides that, if he loses power, he loses his hold over the oligarchs and possibly most of the money he's grifted. They'll claw a lot of it back from the various shell companies that they are holding for Putin.
This is a stink that will stay with the Russians for a very long time, even if some filthy companies continue to do business with these 21st Century mass-murderers.
So, how does this end? I have no idea.
Sergeant Pepper
1 hour ago
11 comments:
Implode ...
That's a possibility. Which may be why China is not helping them a lot. If Russia implodes, then the Chinese can snap up Siberia, much of which they lost to Russia in a treaty that was about as evenhanded as the Gadsten Purchase.
During WWII the Ukrainian soldiers were considered the best soldiers in the Soviet army. Now having suffered a brutal invasion by the Russians, the Russian army will once again find they've stirred up the hornets nest. I don't expect POO-tin to survive and multiple others will be blamed as well. There will be a blood bath, but maybe after this major disaster, Russia will find a way forward as a responsible member of the world community. No, I don't think that will happen either, but one can hope...
Putin’s decision to strike at civilian infrastructure in response to the battlefield setbacks is concerning, but it is doubtful even he would consider chemical or nuclear strikes. The recent destruction of a dam is already backfiring on him, and the use of WMD’s would provide graphic photos and videos that would be impossible to survive…plus the prevailing low-level winds are north or west about 53%+ of the time, irradiating or exposing Russians quickly, followed by threats to Northern Europe due to the upper level wind structures. Make no mistake, he’s desperate, but he also knows a wrong move like that would result in an immediate military rebellion, as the likelihood of Russian troops successfully executing a chemical/nuclear protection evolution is near nil.
Putin: your friendly shithouse rat, cornered with no escape. You do not want to be in the outhouse with him. This can't end well....well, it could, but it's unlikely. There very people that could take him down are part of the whole wretched lie and would be committing suicide to oust Putin.
Meanwhile...it's gotta be a barrel of laughs to be part of their Potemkin military: so much puffery, so little substance, lies, fraud and corruption everywhere. It's amazing that their ships still float or that they have any tanks that haven't turned into fireworks or that their planes are combat-ready. At this point you can just just about yell BOO! at a tanker to get them to freak, jump out and run for ditch before the ammo cooks off.
And yet, I have read other blogs that scream the Russians are winning. These claims cite sources that “prove” the mainstream media is lying.
HOWEVER, just by doing a little ‘fact checking’, the sources are contained in one big circle jerk. Source A says he got info from B, source B says she got info from C, C got info from D, while D says the reliable info came from A. They keep stroking each other’s ego, perpetuating the lie that Putin’s mob is crushing the opposition. Why they do this, nobody knows.
Those of us that live in reality can see the evidence of the Russian military collapse. How Putin and his cronies react is the $64,000 question.
Dale
Short term China and Japan both have long-standing cultural well as territorial claims. It remains to be seen but my contention from the start China would hang back to see how it all shakes out. That the Ruskies are buying ammo from a finite supplier are a pretty good indication.
Long-term Siberia is one of those places everyone will be trying to get to when the weather gets too hot to stay where they're at. Prime real estate just waiting to be occupied, Russia claims it but they've never really controlled any more than the western most parts. If we count this as a straw that broke the old order's back, we could be looking at an entirely different world order quicker than we care to.
Like the Repubes, a paper tiger ... that's got to be the surprise of the century.
Dale,
This seems to be to the point.
This is Putins attempt to Make Russia Great Again so that he isn't emembered as just another grifter.
I have truce before winter in the pool.
FWIW
Putin’s Allies Are Now Slamming the War Right to His Face
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-allies-now-slamming-war-153917120.html
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