Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Here We Go Again; Economics Ed.

The threat of a recession doesn’t seem so remote anymore for investors in financial markets.

The yield on the closely watched 10-year Treasury fell so low Wednesday that, for the first time since 2007, it briefly crossed a threshold that has correctly predicted many past recessions. Weak economic data from Germany and China added to recent signals of a global slowdown.
The difference between 2007 and 2019 is that in 2007, the governments of major economic powers were more than willing to work together to try to lessen the effects of the recession.

But this time around, nobody's going to work with Trump. Nobody trusts him to keep to any agreement. Trump's word is of no value whatsoever. The skeeviest used car dealer is more honest than Trump.


Stewart Dean said...

John 8:44, the last sentence:
When he lies, he speaks according to his own nature, for he is a liar and the father of lies.

CenterPuke88 said...

Problem: Average market return in the 18 months after inversion are about 15%, average time to recession after invasion is 22 months. In short, it may not be clear till after the election.

Tod Germanica said...

Iran has the right idea, no negotiations with (other) terrorists. Just wait out his term of office, one more year or 5 more years doesn't matter. Iran is a regional power that cannot be denied forever, no matter what Israel wants.
Gaddafi's brutal execution shows dictators and other leaders everywhere that the US cannot be trusted. Only nukes ensure that we won't invade, subvert and make them literally lose their heads, in our self appointed role as Team USA, World Police.
Korea and Iran learned the lesson even before the advent of traitorous trump. Especially Iran, so close to heavily nuked up Israel. So if Tehran is turned to glass by Israel, Jerusalem can also be destroyed. Everyone needs nukes now for national survival, and will get them.

w3ski said...

I was reading a Kool-Aid drinkers spiel just the other day about how great the economy is doing under "the Cheetolini", and I was about to piss some facts in his cornflakes when I realized that they don't read the news! Faux isn't going to pin a recession their Cheeto. Most of his followers aren't going to even see what is up until we are really sliding down in a recession. It's so sad that some are so intentionally ignorant in a world full of news.

dinthebeast said...

Krugman says it's not dire yet, but it may be headed that way.
And not all of it is Fergus' doing; China's economy is slowing down, as is Germany's, and we've been in the longest stretch of continuous private sector growth ever, so a downturn is bound to happen sooner or later.
Basically, the big crash a decade ago carved out a massive amount of room for growth just to recover to the problems we were facing in 2007, and trying to take credit (or blame) for that growth, or the lack thereof, is somewhat disingenuous.
It was bound to grow back, policy or no policy, like the countries in Europe who lack their own currency and had to suffer through (mostly) German imposed austerity, and are finally getting back to normal (kind of).
Which, of course, the Austerians are claiming as vindication without accounting for the goddamn decade of unnecessary suffering their citizens endured in the service of their ideology.
So, yeah, having Fergus at the helm of the economy is scary as hell, made all the more so by the cranks and morons he calls his economic team. Is it comforting that he doesn't listen to them when their advice is so bad?
Not really. Some things need to be done right, and should something really bad happen, there are no competent economists there to know what to do about it.

-Doug in Oakland

CenterPuke88 said...

Mitch has decided that the chance of one more term with a “R” President will lock up Judicial control for a couple of decades...enough time for the R’s to emerge from the wilderness.