Economic Forecast for Next Year

Not looking so good:

By the end of the primaries and heading into the summer, we could be looking at the collapse of the real estate market, which will have an impact upon homebuilders and suppliers, like Home Depot and Lowe’s. That’s going to put up red flags even for the Bush Administration, which is pretty much brain-dead. Whoever gets the nomination is going to be staring at a recession and a financial market running scared with safety and soundness issues. Citibank and J.P. Morgan could be facing insolvency, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well.

The only good news in the piece is that the writer thinks that energy prices will drop by 20% next year, as the energy market right now is being driven by speculators (shades of what Enron did to California in `01).