One word: Afghanistan.
The "Northern Distribution Network" runs through Russia. The Pakistan route has been unreliable.
The Administration has said that it would be "grave mistake" for Russia to move on Ukraine. But our interest in keeping the northern supply lies to Afghanistan open will probably surpass any annoyance that we may have over whatever Russia does to Ukraine.
Ukraine isn't bound to us by any treaty that I am aware of. With Yanukovych claiming that he is still the rightful president of Ukraine, if he invites the Russians to act, they may have all the cover that they feel that they need.
UPDATE: In a comment, Snowdog posted a link to a Daily Mail story which claims that the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 obligates the UK and US to go to war over Ukraine. The problem for the Daily Mail is one of reading comprehension. The text of the Budapest Memorandum does no such thing. All it pledges us to do is not use an economic lever against the Ukrainians, to not nuke them, to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and, in the event of aggression against Ukraine, to trot immediately to the UN Security Council and seek a resolution to do something.
Which, as everyone who signed the Memorandum knew in 1994, and which the Daily Mail could apparently not comprehend now, would mean nothing if the Russians moved into Ukraine. Because the Russians have a permanent seat on the Security Council and have the power to veto anything that is being considered by that august body.
Go read it if you like, and judge for yourself. It's not a long document.
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4 comments:
well this is from the daily mail so take with a good dose of salt..but if this is true, it could be an interesting time.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html
I revised the post to answer the Daily Mail's claim. They are quite wrong, to the point that I wonder if they can even read.
I am rather disappointed the Russians appear to have little use for the idea of keeping their involvement circumspect. This is going to put a hitch in relationships...which begs the question of, has Putin been looking for something like this?
On the whole, I'm surprised more reporters didn't trot over to Ukraine to sniff around...I missed the timeline big!
Putin will have a little problem with Yanukovych's spending and luxuries, but his control over the press in Russia will keep that side in line.
Mulling over todays news from Ukraine bring out the following thoughts:
1) Given that the natural gas deal between Ukraine and Russia is renegotiated every three months, and March 1 opens the next window, why did Vlad feel the need to play this game?
2) Was Vlad concerned that the EU leanings of Ukraine would provide a way to prop up the government in the Ukraine despite pressure from elevated natural gas prices?
3) Did Vlad simply dangle the $15 or so billion in front of Yanukovych to make him turn down the EU, expecting something to happen so he could gobble up the Crimea? Perhaps while the Ukrainians got worked up about Yanukovych's misuse of money?
4) Does Russia feel it can nibble the Crimea off Ukraine and the rest of the world will have to live with it? In basic numbers, the Crimea is majority ethnic Russian.
5) Can we really ignore the fact the Russians are paranoid, for pretty good reason, about having "enemies" too close to their borders? That taints every attempt to befriend nations along Russias borders.
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