Words of Advice:

"If Something Seems To Be Too Good To Be True, It's Best To Shoot It, Just In Case." -- Fiona Glenanne

Flying the Airplane is More Important than Radioing Your Plight to a Person on the Ground Who is Incapable of Understanding or Doing Anything About It." -- Unknown

"There seems to be almost no problem that Congress cannot, by diligent efforts and careful legislative drafting, make ten times worse." -- Me

"What the hell is an `Aluminum Falcon'?" -- Emperor Palpatine

"Eck!" -- George the Cat

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

B Minus 100 and Counting

Both the EU and the UK are planning for what will happen if there is no deal in place on Brexit Day (March 29, 2019).

The parties may pull a deal from the magician's hat in time, but I expect they won't. UK PM May would probably like the EU to make the divorce deal a bit sweeter for the UK. The EU, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be motivated to offer more than they already have. The EU probably has a lot of motivation to trod a hard line and make the deal as tough as it can for the Brits, pour encourager les autres.

A no-deal Brexit may mean that a hard border is re-established between Northern Ireland and Ireland, which would be a violation of the Good Friday Agreement. Whether that would be enough to restart the Troubles is probably a question that one hell of a lot of people on that island are not interested in seeing answered.

1 comment:

Jones, Jon Jones said...

In sports they say deadlines make deals. May still has a turd she can't sell and the EU haven't come to grips with the loss of the scale of the London banking system. I'd bet against May in a game of brinkmanship.

Article 50 allows for a mutual extension of the deadline. Soft and No Brexit could use it to advantage.