Saturday, September 3, 2022

California Has Work to Do. A Lot of Work to Do.

The California Air Resources Board today approved the trailblazing Advanced Clean Cars II rule that sets California on a path to rapidly growing the zero-emission car, pickup truck and SUV market and deliver cleaner air and massive reductions in climate-warming pollution.

The rule establishes a year-by-year roadmap so that by 2035 100% of new cars and light trucks sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Compare that to this:

Californians are being asked to conserve power for the fourth day in a row as the state's grid operator expects another strain on the energy grid.

The California Independent System Operator, or Cal ISO, announced that a Flex Alert was extended to Saturday. The alerts have previously been issued for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

With a Flex Alert, residents are urged to conserve electricity from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. each day as energy use is expected to increase amid a long stretch of high temperatures, the California Independent System Operator said in a release
.

First off, "plug-in hybrids" are not zero-emission vehicles. Defining them as such is a slap in the face of reality.

Second, California has about a million electric vehicles. (It might seem like more; I have a relative to says that Teslas are like a plague, as the percentage of assholes driving them is even higher than for Beemers.) The state has somewhere north of 30 million registered motor vehicles. While a lot of those vehicles aren't going away (cars in parts of the state last damn near forever), getting to where Newsome wants to be will require a shitload more EVs.

How is that going to work, if the summers are getting hotter and hotter, heat waves are going to be more intense and of longer duration, and people are going to be asked not to charge their cars when they're home from work?

California is going to have to improve both their electricity production capability and the electric grid and do it goddamned fast. In this day of NIMBYism and BANANAism, it's going to take a lot of litigation to get those projects approved. Thirteen years is not very much time.

I've read articles touting hydrogen-powered vehicles. Sure, hydrogen would be pretty close to a ZEV vehicle, as it owuld only emit water vapor. But getting the production plants, storage facilities and fueling stations up and running in thirteen years? Not going to happen. Everyone who lives near any one of those things will be screaming about the Hindenberg.

Add to that, the mundane issue of road taxes. They were simple to collect from fueled vehicles (x cents per gallon). But how will they collect it from EVs?

Keep this in mind: Whatever they've projected in the past for how conditions will be in 2100 as far as climate, let alone sea-level rise, it's an even bet that we are going to be there in less than thirty years. That's because for the last 30+ years, whenever there has been a discussion of maybe doing something to prevent it, the extractive energy industries have been spreading disinformation that would make a tobacco industry executive blush. We have likely passed the point of no return for a lot of the bad shit that's going to happen, even if we were magically able to to zero global emissions today.

So this is my prediction for the history books of the 24th Century: No matter what we have done since the end of the Second World War, be it going to the Moon, cure polio, eliminate smalllpox, develop computers from machines the size of a building to ones that can worn on one's wrist, none of that will matter. The only thing that people will know about us is that we knew that we were fucking up the climate, that we were exterminating other species by the millions, and we did nothing to avert any of that.

20 comments:

  1. And hydrogen is effing slippery stuff. Monatomic hydrogen will pass through steel.
    https://h2tools.org/bestpractices/hydrogen-embrittlement

    Ask the Artemis people how much fun they are having with hydrogen. Like nuclear power, you can make it work, but not on any normal economic basis.
    If this wasn't mortally existential, I'd say pass the popcorn.

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  2. At least California is trying to do something. This story was written when the W administration came to power. Back then we still had a little bit of time to get this inevitable change moving, and instead we installed a pair of oilmen at the top of the government. We don't get those 20 years back. On the other hand, the technology has gotten better and cheaper and will continue to do so, so as late as it is we should still do what we can.

    -Doug in Sugar Pine

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  3. I drive a plug-in EV, and I am aware of what is at the other end of the outlet. Emissions are lower, but no way zero.

    And this discriminates against those who don't live in a house. Charge cords are expensive, and nobody will leave it outside in a state where catalytic converter theft is popular. Where are the outlets for those in apartments?

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  4. When the early hybrid vehicles were coming out some people bought the large truck hybrids but were disappointed when the mileage was basically the same as the one they replaced because on a longer trips there was no advantage since it was running on gas. Short trip drivers seen the improvement. Hydrogen powered vehicles would seem to be better air wise but their mileage seems to be worse for the weight carried and the volume of vehicle space used for the tanks. Then there is that little matter of the hydrogen has to be pressurized to up to 10,000 PSI which means you are carrying an unguided missile if the tank or it's connecting parts are damaged.

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  5. O-O
    For the people that can't charge at home battery swaps will be the answer. Nio is using them in China and is setting them up in Europe. 5 to 10 minute turn around.

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  6. dan....EVs can be problematic too. Ford's Transit EV van has its charging connector all but on the front bumper. A front end collision would generate a massive short and ensuing fireworks.

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  7. We are on the verge of making a down payment on an EV, probably before the end of the weekend.

    The trouble with hydrogen is the same as the trouble with desalination: we don't have the infrastructure in place to manufacture it at a consumer access level. Basically, need a nuclear powerplant next door to generate the power necessary to reduce hydrogen out of the air or boil salt out of seawater at a level that would reach the everyday consumer.

    Everyone is welcome to bad mouth EVs till the cows come home, but the bottom-line is 1) we could have been doing this all along, but for a bunch of Greedy Old Pigs, think how advanced that would be and 2) if we're going to retain our car-culture, all that American Graffiti bullshit, then this is the only viable option. Maybe I'm wrong (it happens), I'm only about eighteen months into researching it.

    Not that it matters, our grand kids are going to choke on our farts ...

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  8. A modern electric car is only a pipe dream for me and many others here in Ca. We currently drive a 22-year-old pickup and with gas so near 5 bucks a gallon, we can barely afford to drive it. The registration takes 2 months to save up for. My wife and I are retired and on a very fixed income. There is no way we can afford to buy another vehicle, plus we need a truck regularly. We carry firewood, we carry a full bed of trash to the local dump, and stuff like that makes any car not so desirable.
    Not that I wouldn't like to have one, but I am just not going to be able to afford one. Also pretty sure I'm not the only one in this boat.
    w3ski

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  9. An estimated 60% of the power on the coast between San Francisco and the Oregon border is geothermal, from the Geysers, as they are called.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers






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  10. Buying popcorn to watch Cali power grid melt down (literally). Dan is absolutely correct! 10k PSI hydrogen bottles will require 'serious' cages to prevent them departing at high speed in a wreck, plus explosion issues!

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  11. Battery swaps to replace charging? Who is going to do that? It's not a 12V battery that can be lifted out. Car repair shops in my area have a backlog because of labor and parts shortages already.

    And automobile batteries are very, very expensive. The value of one at end-of-life will be almost zero; what do you do when you get the hot potato? I guarantee no swap shop will hold one because it lost the ability to retain charge.

    Rickshaws and mopeds, sure.

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  12. the problem is we are used to an energy dense fuel.

    Gasoline is about 32KWH/Gallon and in a steel can that
    weighs less than 8-9 pounds. Compact car carries maybe
    10 to 15 gallons. Most of the fuel efficient cars do
    around 30mpg so that 350-450 miles per fillup.

    Consider 32KwH of battery is maybe 450 pounds not
    including cooling, charge and discharge management,
    mechanical support, and other systems to insure the
    battery is safe. Sure it can be recharged but then
    you need to supply 16KWH (assume its half full) of
    energy to do that.

    Bigger battery more weight.

    A more efficient battery (new tech) has to be
    manufacturable, reasonable cost, and recharge quickly.
    When you add safety to that its not a tomorrow thing.

    Other path simplify the car to need less power for lights,
    air conditioning, less motor (HP), less weight.

    As a friend said; physics always wins.


    SD, the power connector on all is protected against
    sending power back to the source or even a short at
    the connector. The actual charging systems are
    complex and carefully protected against such things.

    The idea of battery swaps is old, Pallet fork trucks,
    Golf carts and other have used this to get around
    charge times. Those used relatively small batteries
    in the 1-3KWH range and even those are heavy.

    For mopens the total battery needed is smaller as
    the total weight and payload is also smaller.

    Next scale lower is the E-bikes at maybe 200-400wh
    (.2-.4kwh) a few pounds added to a bicycle frame.
    Modest speeds and small motors needed make for
    fairly good range. However the average bike
    is aerodynamically draggy.

    I'd consider a EV that was more like an enclosed
    QUAD with decent seats and crash protection and
    some basic comforts. Then people have to get
    used to truly compact wagons.

    So the solution is not under the big red EASY button.


    Eck!

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  13. O_O,

    Batteries are not all expensive, usual lead for the average car
    is 100-200$ and they have a core value (lead is highly recycled).
    They have a usual lifespan of 3-5years.

    EV batteries, they are exotic and recycled. Costly you bet, but
    current lifespans are in the 6-12 years and some cases longer.
    The systems around them are optimized for best life due to that
    factor. Amortize over life and exchange cost of fuel and oil.
    The recycle stream has to be in place as some of the needed
    minerals are rare.

    Life and cost are lesser factor when you consider big enough
    to drag the usual gas sucking SUV down the road with all
    its features going.


    Eck!

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  14. Eck- your 2nd post may have missed me state I own a plug-in. I know the price of a new battery, and it is a LOT. Fortunately, the battery management system has kept my battery as good as new so far (5 yr).

    And most of what I read says lithium is difficult and expensive to recycle.

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  15. 0-0, Yes battery swaps.
    As I said 5 to 10 minute turn around and one operator . Nio is doing it in China and are moving into Europe.

    The average battery in a new car is in the 50 to 70 kWh size and has a range of 250 to 300 miles.
    LFP batteries don't require the nickel and cadmium that the older ones do.
    Degraded EV batteries can be reused to store energy for residential use and then recycled.
    A chevy Bolt is 26,000.00 base price .
    China has over 300 car companies.

    What I'm saying is that the world is changing fast and keeping up is getting harder but I'm trying.

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  16. One other thing: All NEW cars will have to be zero emission. I'm 61 and have never had a new car, and I think I've only known about a half dozen new cars among my acquaintances. In 61 years. This is about steering the status quo in a better direction, not a straight up overhaul of personal transportation.

    -Doug in Sugar Pine

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  17. Update: we took the plunge, made a down payment on an E-Mini.

    As I said, 18 mos research: it's ideal for our urban driving.

    And if I need it, my 30 yr-old 1 ton Chevy 4X4 (it's not a car) pickup just sits out there in the drive waiting for me to need it.

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  18. Glenn Kelley- you clearly do not understand how batteries are mounted in electric vehicles, but other commenters have touched on it.
    They are large, and are accessed from under the vehicle. Power connections, coolant connections (draining and filling involved), equipment needing to work around the lift to remove batteries... how many people live in your area? Note the number of people filling up at gas stations, then multiply by the time needed for fewer spots to replace them.
    And will these places be open at 2 AM?

    It won't work. Unless private vehicle become the new private jet.

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  19. 0-0
    Because you're not familiar with the technology doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmWL1hZQmD0

    ReplyDelete

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