The tests, where they look for rare chromosomal disorders, have a stunning rate of false positives. The blood tests have been pushed by Silicon Valley tech companies, who advertise that the tests are nearly infallible, when they are anything but. Most of the companies who offer the tests refused to talk to reporters about this, which is a pretty reliable sign that they are engaged in fuckery and they are fully aware of what they are doing.
Making a decision based on those tests would be a massive mistake. Any positive needs to be confirmed by good old amniocentisis, which in itself has some risks.
If there is anyone in your circle who is pregnant or planning to be, they need to know that they may be offered tests that are pretty worthless.
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Monday, January 3, 2022
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Kevin Drum has an excellent piece on this...just he is often a goto for anything involving statistics
ReplyDeletehttps://jabberwocking.com/the-base-rate-problem-is-not-your-friend/
Apparently the original test for Down's Syndrome was fairly accurate, but the companies saw potential profits in the business model and came out with tests that were usually 85% wrong.
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