If the EU doesn't agree to a delay, then the Brits will, in essence, be tossed out of the EU on the 29th. All of the other countries have to agree in order to grant an extension. They may do that, but some might want some extra sugar.
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
Brexit: Maybe Not This Month?
The UK's Parliament voted to ask the EU for a stay of execution more time to negotiate a Brexit deal. It'll be two years on March 29th since the UK formally notified the EU that the UK was leaving, but in that time, the Brits have been unable to agree amongst themselves the terms of an acceptable divorce package.
If the EU doesn't agree to a delay, then the Brits will, in essence, be tossed out of the EU on the 29th. All of the other countries have to agree in order to grant an extension. They may do that, but some might want some extra sugar.
If the EU doesn't agree to a delay, then the Brits will, in essence, be tossed out of the EU on the 29th. All of the other countries have to agree in order to grant an extension. They may do that, but some might want some extra sugar.
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The interteresting part is WHO decides, in this case the EU leaders rather than the Euro MoP’s. Being a pragmatic bunch, who don’t want a no deal BREXIT because of the chaos and costs, it is likely they’ll agree...however, they’ll want a clear idea of the plan going ahead. Since MV3 is due on Tuesday, Meaningful Vote the Third, or the third time they try try to roll this polished turd past Parliament, there is still a chance that May can corral the DUP and her skeptics and ramrod this through. If that happens, an extension of around two months is requested, to avoid the issues of the EU elections. On the other hand, if, as expected, the Parliament gives May the finger again, the extension requested would be a couple of years.
ReplyDeleteAssuming May gets bested again, I would honestly expect that first she would resign, no Conservative would be able to piece together a workable coalition, and an election would be called. A huge element of that election would be the Second Vote idea floated by the People’s Vote. The corruption and double-dealing that occurred, with Russian aid, in the First Vote has steadily leaked out into the open and will also be a fun contributor.
I kind of wonder whether the EU will be any different to negotiate with after the election.
ReplyDeleteRight now, at least, they don't want to make it too easy to leave for fear that some other countries might elect their own wingnuts and try leaving themselves.
The EU is not that solid of an entity to withstand the departure of more than one major financial player; the whole "one currency, many governments" model is not ideal.
Obviously, they had other considerations in building the EU, and if those considerations are to be held, they have to own up to the shortcomings of the model and hold it together, or make the kind of changes necessary to make it more stable under the kind of shifts in the political winds that are common in Europe.
I read that a large slice of the UK's population would like to vote again on Brexit, but I don't really know if that would be allowed by the EU with article 50 having already been engaged.
-Doug in Oakland
The European Court of Justice has already ruled that Britain can withdraw it’s Article 50 at any time prior to exit.
ReplyDeleteThank you, I could have looked that up before I wrote that comment.
ReplyDelete-Doug in Oakland
No problem, Doug, the mess is so complex a better scoring system is needed. Looks like Labour will be behind an amendment, on Tuesday, to manadate that the agreed upon exit deal be subject to public vote, with a option to remain also offered on that vote.
ReplyDeleteOn Thursday and Friday, the EU leaders meet with May to discuss this fiasco, and on Saturday we get competing marches. The fun continues.
MV3 to be pulled if it’s in doubt and a long extension requested. New problem, the EU has already reallocated the Euro MP positions to other countries, and those countries have started toward the late May vote on that basis...more chaos.
ReplyDeleteAnd now Bercow is saying no, you can't just keep holding votes on the same issue until you get what you want, we rejected your deal, so if you want a different vote, bring us a different deal.
ReplyDelete-Doug in Oakland