Monday, October 9, 2023

Taiwan Gets It. Republicans, as Usual, Don't.

To Rep. Mike Collins, China is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. So the Georgia Republican has voted against providing military aid to Ukraine as he advocates for doing more to arm Taiwan, the self-governed island that’s at risk of military aggression from Beijing.

For Collins and other Republican lawmakers, Taiwan and Ukraine are effectively rivals for a limited pool of U.S. military assistance. But that’s not necessarily how Taiwan and many of its supporters see it. They view Taiwan’s fate as closely linked to that of Ukraine as it struggles to push back a Russian invasion.

They say China is watching closely to see if the United States has the political stamina to support an ally in a prolonged, costly war. The U.S. aid to Ukraine also has led to weapons manufacturers stepping up production — something that could benefit Taiwan in a clash with China.

“Ukraine’s survival is Taiwan’s survival. Ukraine’s success is Taiwan’s success,” Taiwan’s diplomat in the U.S., Hsiao Bi-Khim, said in May at the Sedona Forum hosted by the McCain Institute.

Keeping Taiwan supplied and supported in the face of a Chinese invasion has the potential to be a harder problem than doing the same for Ukraine (or Israel). If the Republicans wilt in supporting Ukraine, the Chinese will believe that they can do what the Russians did and grind down the American conservatives.

I don't know whether Republicans are merely "yellow elephants", who talk a good game but are really cowardly as fuck or if they, like their Orange Demigod, are in thrall to Putin, but th net outcome is the same.

Part of it, I believe, is that the Ukrainians are standing up for freedom and against autocratic rule, which are both things that Republicans disagree with them on.

By the way, one might note that, in this country, whenever a political group or organization has the words "freedom" or "liberty" in their names, their stance is the exact opposite. You need look no further than "Moms for Liberty," the premier book-burning group in the country (and those that support them).

8 comments:

  1. I do believe it is a test of will.
    https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4E10AQEBgRje7U4kyg/image-shrink_800/0/1696543211580?e=1697500800&v=beta&t=FDg7d50JKgHoF3NOk4HQoR2LLOg5jrW-iy8cWYuJXlA

    If you believe this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKT8xSe55YI Beijing may be distancing itself from Russia. China has its own set of military problems:
    President Xi Jinping has dismissed top Chinese generals amid a seeming cleansing of the ruling party.

    Mr Xi dismissed two top generals at the head of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force in what appears to be a purge, with allegations of corruption expected.

    https://gazettengr.com/xi-jinping-sacks-top-chinese-generals/
    These Communist autocracies do purges on a regular basis it seems.

    Taiwan re-supply might not be as a difficult as some imagine. Japan, Australia and South all seem to be in the game. Aiding and abetting by India and Vietnam seem quite likely. And the Chinese have untested kit...

    Carry on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chinese tactics to “blockade” Taiwan are the key element here. If U.S., Australian, British, German, Japanese etc ships are delivering supplies, China has a very difficult calculation to make. Are they willing to expand the war to stop the ships or not? It’s not like blockading Cuba, the Chinese PLAN is not equipped to interdict traffic in that manner, especially if the U.S. is willing to sail a frigate+ in with them. Threats of missiles attacking shipping are a nightmare in such a busy area, even if traffic is routing around the Taiwan Straits, as one errant long range missile could do all sorts of mischief.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Throw this one in the hopper too:
    U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday called on Chinese President Xi Jinping to support Israel after deadly attacks by Hamas, adding he was "disappointed" that Beijing showed "no sympathy" for the country over the weekend...


    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-senate-leader-schumer-says-disappointed-by-chinas-statement-hamas-attacks-2023-10-09/

    In an unusual move, Chinese President Xi Jinping strengthened China’s statement condemning the attacks in Israel and the Gaza Strip after coming under pressure from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday.

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/4245686-chinese-leader-xi-strengthens-statement-on-israel-after-pressure-from-schumer/


    ReplyDelete
  4. CP88, if the Chinese declare a war zone around Taiwan, the increase in maritime shipping insurance rates alone will clear out most of the merchant traffic.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Who says Putin isn't a great businessman? He has made a relatively small investment in the Republican Party and it is paying back some great dividends.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Comrade, agree…however, if the Chinese decide to try for inbound supply shipping, despite the risks, as you well know a decoyed missile doesn’t simply vanish, and with enough range (the common YJ-12 has about 220nm range) it could cause some real mischief. The disruption of Japanese cargo traffic alone would be massive if they had to try to steer 300 miles plus off Taiwan.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Good point DG. But remember they're just taking care of the people that voted for TFG.
    all 175,000,000 million of them.

    ReplyDelete

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