Saturday, October 8, 2022

Crimea Bridge

A powerful blast damaged Russia's road-and-rail bridge to Crimea on Saturday, hitting a prestigious symbol of Moscow's annexation of the peninsula and the key supply route to forces battling to hold territory captured in southern Ukraine.

The early morning explosion on the bridge over the Kerch Strait, for which Russia did not immediately assign blame, prompted gleeful messages from Ukrainian officials but no claim of responsibility.

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree instructing tighter security for the bridge as well as the infrastructure supplying electricity and natural gas to the peninsula
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The Russians claim that the bridge is partially open, but one thing is clear from this war: The word of the Russians is not to be trusted. So it may indeed be partially open, but only a fool would drive on it.

Meanwhile, European nations have been working to get out from under the thumb of Gazprom.

Putler turned 70 yesterday. I wonder how much of this war has been a result of his desire to be the greatest Russian leader since Catherine; the man who began the restoration of the imperian Russian empire. He might have once thought of starting with the Baltics, but they joined NATO, so moving against them may have sparked a global war. Possibly Belarus, but the regime there has been compliant, anyway. The Central Asian republics might raise the hackles of the Chinese, so he may have thought that Ukraine was a safer bet, since it wasn't aligned with anyone and nobody got too bent out of shape over the Crimean annexation in 2014.

But wars famously never go to plan. Putin, who has tried to project a reputation of competence and professionalism, has managed to paint himself into a corner almost as badly as his ancestor-in-spirit.



So, where do we go from here? Is Putin hoping to hold on the hopes that the GOP will gain control of Congress and strangle funding for the Ukrainians. Maybe he hopes that the Asset will return to power in two years and force NATO to walk away from the war.

The Ukrainians, knowing all that, may try to put the boots to the Russian army now, while they have the advantage.

5 comments:

  1. I'm pretty gunshy about first impressions, especially when they become The Narrative.

    My first impression is that truck was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    Maybe if it was packed with C6, or a tactical ...

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  2. The vehicles on the road bridge were collateral damage. The train bridge is back on, but all traffic is going slow.

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  3. I'll be glad when someone takes him out..........

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  4. Jon, and everything will be delayed as the FSB checks all vehicles (and probably railcars) for bombs.

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  5. Re: railroad traffic, it seems to me in the posted vid, that around 1:28 and after, that rebar is exposed; if the RR bridge didn't fall, it has to at least be weakened. I'd expect that train traffic, if resuming, is doing so with lighter loads.

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