A Blast From the Past, Here

... Nothing is certain in war and, in a war between two nuclear-armed nations, things can spiral out of control pretty quickly (that fear kept a war with the Soviet Union from ever breaking out).

But rationality rarely seems to prevail. History is replete with wars that began when one side thought they could gain an advantage by resorting to force of arms. History also shows that much of the time, the gain is not worth the cost. History also shows that while it takes two parties to maintain a peace, only one side need decide to start a war.

For our part, we had better keep in mind that we have potential adversaries on the horizon who fighters are not functionally illiterate sandal-wearing guerrillas. We might have to take on an adversary who has far more sophisticated weaponry than Kalashnikovs. That is not a fight that we can afford to learn on the fly.

I wrote that eleven years ago. I was writing about the Chinese, but it would seem to apply to the Russians, as well.

We've spent the last two decades fighting enemies who weren't able to muster any serious technological threats beyond command-detonated IEDs. Rifles, machine guns, RPGs and the occaisional MANPAD was what they had.

We are on the cusp of having to fight a near-peer enemy. Pray to Your Dear and Fluffy Lord that we are ready. The Butcher's Bill may be steep and not just for those wihin shelling range.