The Catalan regional parliament has voted to declare independence from Spain, while the Spanish parliament has approved direct rule over the region.More here.
The big question is whether or not the Catalan are going to roll over and quietly submit to direct rule from Madrid or resist in some way. And, if so, in what manner.
One thing is reasonably certain: If Catalonia were to become independent, it'd have to negotiate that. The world has become far less tolerant of adjusting borders by gunpoint than it once was. Which is probably, on balance, a very good development.
Based upon the E.U. diacussion before the Scottish Independence Referendum, an independent Catalonia would NOT be an E.U. member. While the required border controls and such wouldn't sever France and Spain, the loss of the direct major highway connection for most of the east of Spain to France would be a nightmare. Also, Catalonia has, by some accounts, as much as 20% of Spanish GDP and about 16% of the population.
ReplyDeleteIf the Catalan's go, the Basque's are next...which severs the major western highway to Spain from France. The remaining French/Spainish roads almost all go through a National Forest on the French side, dominated by the Pyrenees and unsuitable for such traffic.
I suspect this act will end with a squashed independence movement in Catalonia, squashed by both spain and the E.U. Much as the E.U. HAS to take a hard line with Britain trying to leave the E.U. (pour encourager les autres), they will need to squash this flat before the Bavarians, the Normans, the Basques and such get ramped up. Italy has been fighting a rearguard against the Northern League for years, and the other rumbles of discontent will only get louder if Catalonia gets any deal.
The Catalonian government - elected by 47% of the votes, due to how electoral districts are drawn - has basically been operating on wishful thinking and bluster this entire time. Their entire plan has been "we'll get all the benefits of being part of Spain but not pay taxes anymore." If Rajoy hadn't been a complete idiot they wouldn't have nearly the support they do at the moment, and unless he screws up more I expect reality to start sinking in and their popularity is going to sink.
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