Argentina believes Brexit might cost Britain the support of European allies for its control of the Falkland Islands and is watching developments closely, the Argentinian foreign minister said in Brussels.The Royal Navy is a shadow of what it was during the Falklands War. They have no aircraft carriers and no fixed-wing C/VTOL aircraft; their only land-attack capability is by Tomahawk cruise missiles. The RAF has no long-range striking power. If Argentina makes a try for the Falklands before the end of this decade, they may be able to make it stick.
After this decade, the Royal Navy may have a couple of carriers with F-35s, which could make things a little more interesting.
Meanwhile, the Euros are suggesting that since the divorce isn't final, the Brits can change their minds and all will be forgiven. Mostly.
The president of the European parliament has said Britain would be welcomed back with open arms if voters changed their minds about Brexit on 8 June, challenging Theresa May’s claim that “there is no turning back” after article 50.
Speaking after a meeting with the prime minister in Downing Street, Antonio Tajani insisted that her triggering of the departure process last month could be reversed easily by the remaining EU members if there was a change of UK government after the general election, and that it would not even require a court case.
So, in summary:
ReplyDelete1) Spain is trying to pressure the U.K. on Gibraltar via the process.
2) Argentina is watching the Falklands (Malvinas) with interest.
3) Some of the EU leaders are pushing for extreme costs, but a few have started to back it off a bit.
4) If the French election results in Far-Left vs Far-Right, the calculus gets messy, as they both are anti-EU.
5) The Icelandic Foreign Minister is touring EU locations and arguing for a trade deal with the U.K. mirroring the current stance quickly...which is rather interesting.
6) The snap election called in the U.K. Is designed to harden the British position as seen by the EU.
7) There are about 700,000 Polish tradesmen (mainly plumbers) in the U.K., and a similar number of other nationalities, especially Eastern European.
8) All of those people returning to the EU would cause dislocations.
On the whole, the EU position is starting to look like more bargaining than requiring. I think after a little more chest beating, they'll get down to brass tacks. The U.K. has never been happily integrated into the EU, and the EU will be happy to see them out of the meetings.
The rights of EU and U.K. Citizens will end up being the major negotiations, followed by the financial markets considerations. The Germans are dying to get the financial markets, but I suspect London will keep the majority due to tech market access, location, experience, the unwillingness of U.S. financial types to move to Frankfort or Munich vs London.
As for the Argentinians, without a military dictatorship, it seems unlikely they have the appetite to try by force, because they know they will probably win in the long run. An Argentinian occupation would be a long, costly stalemate with them expending funds to supply the islands by air, as the Royal Navy submarines would easily embargo the islands.
I'm not sure Argentina would do this now, they are hardly holding up their mainland country together as it is. Could be used as a distraction and 'rallying around the flag' moment I suppose.
ReplyDeleteThey'd have to consider Shitler awkwardly stepping in and invading Peru or somebody.
ReplyDeleteAnon 4/21 @ 0551:
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure Argentina would do this now, they are hardly holding up their mainland country together as it is. Could be used as a distraction and 'rallying around the flag' moment I suppose.
Well, that was pretty much the situation in 1982, no?