A new survey of German attitudes towards security paints a grim picture for Europe. According to the survey, a majority of Germans oppose assisting their neighbors in case of Russian attack. The results mirror those in other countries, and begs the question: Is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization dying?Unlike the author of that opinion piece, Germans can apparently read a fucking map. The Baltic republics are almost completely cut off from western Europe by either Russia or by Belarus, which is effectively a Russian puppet. Resupplying the Baltics in the face of Russian opposition will be a tough endeavor.
The survey, conducted by the Program for the Future of Europe and the Polish Institute of Public Affairs, reported that more than half (57 percent) of Germans polled do not support sending the German military to defend other NATO members "such as Poland or the Baltic states." Only 31 percent of Germans believe their country should fulfill its treaty obligations and assist those countries if attacked.
The Germans probably don't see a strategic interest in defending the Baltics. Neither does anyone else with a lick of sense. Which, of course, rules out a lot of think-tankers and columnists.
NATO, at its current size and configuration, has become a paper tiger. Russia, while a concern for Europe, is about to face the ugly reality of a Chinese military with equal, or superior, weapons and millions of more troops. The U.S. Navy is on the verge of being unable to realistically patrol in disputed waters near China, without risking the loss of a carrier. China, for all its spending and military development, still keeps a wary eye on India, whose population increase is becoming a threat. India is concerned about the whole Islamic world, as is China and the U.S., while Europe is now starting to wonder if selling all that shit to the Arabs was a good idea. Oh, and did I mention the real possibility of the EU fragmenting.
ReplyDeleteSo, given all that, an alliance with certain major European states (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Norway and Spain) and then another with SE Asian countries (Australia, Philippines, Japan and Korea (God help us keeping them off each other's throats)) is probably the best route forward. I'd like the Swedes, but they won't join, and the Poles, but the Germans wouldn't buy in. Adding India to the SE Asian group would be good, but might be a difficult sell.
Now, compare all that to tRump's foreign policy speech, and you'll see just how far down the rabbit hole we could go if we elected the moron....which is not to say we ain't got issues, like the farce that NATO has become, as you so clearly elucidated.
Not that the Germans could field a complete company of tanks, or a squadron of planes if they had to right now anyway....
ReplyDeleteFunny how the only candidate talking like this is The Donald. ;-)
ReplyDeleteBorepatch, you know what they say about broken clocks. Or blind squirrels.
ReplyDeleteA Russian move into the Baltics is possible, I guess, but it's more the stuff of Beltway self-dealing fear-mongering than anything else. Moscow seems to be keeping their liberated brothers in Donbas at arm's length, and there the population would probably prefer closer ties, if only for some subsidies. It's very very hard to see what's gained from taking in several million avowedly hostile Estonians and Letts and Lithuanians, while at the same time boosting Polish paranoia even higher than it normally is.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I can see a President Clinton goosing the gratuitous hysteria level to eleven and beyond, so who knows?