This Business Will Get Out of Control and We'll Be Lucky to Live Through It.

For all of the bleating by the Neocon Gods of War, who are advocating going into Ukraine and squaring off with the Red Army, one should consider this: Toe-to-toe confrontations by nuclear armed powers are rare because rational people know full well that once shooting starts, things can spin out of control very fast and in a very bad way.

India and Pakistan have twice come close to war since both nations acquired nuclear weapons (both times were caused by Pakistani acts of war). A nuclear war between those two nations might ultimately kill over a billion people around the world, far more than the 12-20 or so million dead from the initial attacks.

Think of that for a second. A short war between a second-rate and a fourth-rate military powers could quickly kill almost as many people as who died in the First World War. As much as some of the neo-con chickenhawks might poo-poo the Russian military, which has only recently begun upgrading its conventional forces from what was left over from the Soviet Union, not too many people are scoffing at Russia's nuclear forces.

Which is why when nuclear-armed countries start throwing their weight around, they are careful to pick fights with other countries which don't have nuclear weapons.

Which may also be why, given China's rather aggressive stance of late, one should not be surprised to find out that Japan has gone nuclear in a very quick fashion.