So I was a little surprised to read this in the free Stratfor analysis of the agreement:
For all its rhetoric opposing the deal, Israel has very little to worry about in the immediate term. It will have to adjust to operating in an environment where Iran is no longer limited by its pariah status, but Iran remains unable to threaten Israel for the foreseeable future. Iran, constrained by its need to be a mainstream actor, will seek to rebuild its economy and will steer clear of any hawkish moves against Israel. Furthermore, Iran is more interested in gaining ground against the Arab states -- something that Israel can use to its advantage. The report about the Israeli security establishment seeing the deal as a positive development (in contradiction to the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government) speaks volumes about the true extent of Israeli apprehension. (Emphasis mine)It seems that is the truth.
After the Geneva agreement was signed on Sunday, retired Gen. Amos Yadlin, former head of Military Intelligence, deputy commander of the Air Force and now director of the country’s leading strategic think tank, told reporters, “If this were the final agreement – then it would really be a bad agreement, but that’s not the situation.” The situation, he said, is that this is an interim, six-month agreement, and that it’s the final pact to be negotiated later that will be decisive. He said the final agreement must not only freeze Iran’s progress toward a bomb, like the current, interim one does, but reverse it. He also gave Netanyahu credit for getting the world powers to extract additional concessions from Iran. But Yadlin said Sunday’s agreement, which Netanyahu condemns for having “made the world more dangerous,” did just the opposite: "It is possible that had there been no agreement, [Iran] would have decided to make the breakthrough to a bomb, because the sanctions are hurting it badly.”That's not the only signal that the Israeli security establishment is sending. Their spooks are also supporting the deal.
I am not a major fan of the ability of air power alone to accomplish things. Unlike a couple of other countries, the Iranians have not been short-sighted enough to build their nuclear facilities right out in the open.[3] I also think it highly probably that any airstrikes will serve to cement the grip of the Iranian radicals.[4] I have little doubt that the intelligence analysts have reached a different conclusion.
Time will tell whether or not this deal is a first step or a failure. But the oer-the-top reaction of the neo-cons and their ilk suggest to me that the deal is a good thing.
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[1] Like Miss Lindsey.
[2] A man who has been eager to see Americans die for his country.
[3] Though you don't have to smash the facility to make it unusable. You bomb the doors to make it inaccessible.
[4] "Remember the Maine, to Hell with Spain" ring any bells? Those opposed to a war with Spain lost the argument when the USS Maine blew up.
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