Party Like It's 1992

In 1991, the incumbent president, George H.W. Bush was hugely popular. The Persian Gulf War had ended with very few American casualties. As it was then time to plan campaigns for the upcoming election, the senior stars of the Democratic party apparently did not see a road to victory. So they chose to sit that one out and wait for 1996, when the Republicans would probably be stuck with Danny Quayle as their candidate. They apparently thought that it would be a good race for the younger Democrats with presidential aspirations to get their feet wet in the game.

As we know now, things didn't work out so well for either Bush or those Democrats. The savings and loan debacle* triggered a recession that lasted for several years. President Bush also agreed to raise taxes in order to help bring the deficit under control,** a deficit which had been more than tripled by both his and the Reagan Administrations. But since Republican voters like to prattle about the deficit, but they hate doing anything about it that doesn't solely land on the backs of the poor and working classes, Bush was not very popular with the pre-Tea party wing of the GOP.

Into the election fray stepped a truly batshit-crazy egomaniac by the name of Henry Ross Perot.*** Perot siphoned off the similarly batshit-nutso GOP voters, as well as a certain percentage of the disaffected independents. On the other hand, the Democratic voters pretty much stuck with their party's candidate, a young man from Arkansas who was heretofore best known for giving an half-hour-long speech at the 1988 convention that almost resulted in his being arrested for "murder by boredom".

Clinton got just under 45 million votes which, in a two-man race at the time, probably would have sent him home. Perot siphoned off just under 20 million votes and Bush got 39 million votes. I know that there was a lot of polling on this subject, but my gut feeling then was that, regardless of what they told the pollsters, without Perot, enough voters would have held their noses and voted "R" so that Bush would have squeaked by.

I bring this up because I believe that, without some spoiling event, that 2012 will see Obama re-elected. The stronger Republicans have chosen to sit this one out, despite the entreaties of the party stalwarts. You don't have to look very hard to find conservatives bemoaning the pack of chowderheads who make up the ABM candidates and their sinking suspicion that Romney will be the electoral equivalent of Barbaro. The GOP nominating structure seems designed to squeeze its candidates into positions that will be indefensible during the general election campaign. And there is no sign that any well-financed liberal will step up to challenge this President in either the primary or general elections.

Which is why I believe that Obama will win.****
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* Brought on by deregulation of the S&Ls, both Federally and especially in Texas.
** It worked, only to be undone by his idiot son.
*** He preferred to go by his middle name, like John Edgar Hoover and Willard Mitt Romney.
**** On the other hand, I thought Kerry would win in `04. (And yes, I know the credible allegations that the GOP stole the election in Ohio, so spare me that point.)