A friend suggested that I not sweat the polls, but look at what the bookies are setting as odds. The pollsters will merely look stupid if they are wrong, but the bookies could lose a shitload of money, so the odds of winning that the bookies have may be a better indication.
This site says that the odds of McCain winning are 13-2 and that the odds of Obama winning are 1-14.
So if you were to plunk down $2 on McCain and he won, you'd get $15 back and if you were to bet $2 on Obama and he won, you'd get $2.14 back. For comparison, the betting odds on Big Brown for the Preakness were 3-10 (a $2.60 payout).
I bought a bottle of champagne in case Obama wins and a bottle of vodka in case McCain wins. For reasons that border on superstitious, I bought cheap-ass sparkling wine ("Soviet" champagne) and good vodka. Either the champagne will be cracked before 11PM or the vodka a lot later.
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Monday, November 3, 2008
1 comment:
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InTrade.com (market based) and electoral-vote.com (poll based) are both saying right about the same numbers right now. Major Obama win.
ReplyDeleteThey were both pretty darned close back in 2004. Actually, I think InTrade called it right on every single state.