First off, I find it hard to believe that the people in the Administration are that stupid. When stuck in a quagmire, widening the quagmire is a real dumb-shit maneuver. It didn't work in 1970, I do not see any reason why it would work now.
Second, like it or not, Iran is as close to a functioning democratic state as exists in the Persian Gulf region. Any attack on Iran is going to cement the power of the current regime. It's the same sort of stupidity that we saw in World War II when the British, who had just withstood the Blitz, seriously thought that the Allies could bomb the German people into rebelling against their government.[1] External attacks tend to unite a nation. Is everybody in the Bush Gang so ignorant that they do not understand that point, or are they willfully blind? Is there anybody in the Bush Administration who is not driven by neocon ideology and who has a glimmer of understanding of what is going on in this reality? (I know, dumb question.)
But let's face facts: Nobody in their right mind should bet that the Bush Administration will ever do anything based on rationality.
If they are indeed stupid enough to do this, we will see crude oil futures go over $100/barrel in a fucking nanosecond. And we may well look back on paying $3 a gallon for gasoline as the "good old days of cheap gas."
[1] There were good reasons for bombing the cities of Germany, not the least of which was "you did it to us, we'll do it to you". All I am saying is that the rationale of "breaking the morale of the enemy's civilian population" was a false one.
"But let's face facts: Nobody in their right mind should bet that the Bush Administration will ever do anything based on rationality."
ReplyDeleteActually, I feel that way about 90% of the politicians in both parties.
That's true, Bob. But as long as all they were wasting was our cash, that's rectifiable. The lives lost in another war are not recoverable.
ReplyDeleteif Bush does this, we run the risk of becoming the Germans of the 21st Century.