The Art of the Yield.

Trump took us into a war, blew through much of the stock of PGMs, got at least 13 American troops killed, hundreds wounded, killed hundreds of Iranian schoolgirls and what did he accomplish?

• Iran agrees, as they did in the JCPOA, not to develop a nuclear weapon.
• No inspection regimen to guarantee that, unlike the JCPOA.
• Iran and Oman may have control (tolls, fees) of the Strait of Hormuz, which was prewar international waters.
• Iran gets to import/export oil.
• Iran gets sanctions relief.
• Iran gets a $300 billion rebuilding fund, most of which, like Trump's ballroom, will be paid by American taxpayers.
• US agrees to draw down, if not outright withdraw, forces from the Persian Gulf.

In a nutshell, the US is in a worse position than it was before Trump, Netanyahu and Hegseth began throwing bombs around.

What the world saw was a display of Trump's short attention span. He got bored with negotiations, listened to those other two fools that all we had to do was bomb a bunch of stuff and Iran would give in, then he got bored when the Iranians didn't surrender. And it seems clear that the possibility that the stock market would crater haunts him. Not that he cares about the cost of gas or groceries, just the stock market.

It took the Taliban and the Vietnamese each avout eighteen years to outlast the U.S. It took the Iranians less than four months to outlast Trump.

Somebody is going to get thrown under the bus for what everyone outside of the MAGAverse is recognizing as a massive geopolitical defeat. Since Trump never takes the blame for anything, the betting prediction websides are probably offering odds.